The rare combination that pushes Juan Soto's free agency to unimagined heights

SAN ANTONIO – Juan Soto turned 26 on the day of World Series Game 1 and of both teams' 20 starting players that Friday night, the only two younger ones were Anthony Volpe, who was a rookie in 2023, and Austin Wells, who was a rookie this year.

Soto's age is often mentioned as part of the portfolio that should lead him to contract signings in free agency. A position player this good, this young, doesn't come on the market that often, and if you're waiting for something like this to happen again, take a seat because it's going to take a while.

What's rare is valuable, and Soto has the 17th best baseball-reference wins over replacement in his age-25 season in MLB history. There are others who have fared better from the free agent era, but Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Ken Griffey Jr. and Andruw Jones all signed contract extensions before hitting the market.

The only player who was actually available in free agency and had a better WAR than Soto during that period was Alex Rodriguez, who signed a record 10-year, $252 million contract after his age-24 season in 2000. Dollar signed with the Rangers.

The class picture is simply not crowded for such good, young players making it into free agency. Think Barry Bonds, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado. Remember after the 2015 season when so many were baffled as to why Jason Heyward received an eight-year, $184 million free agent contract with the Cubs? It was based on Heyward being a WAR favorite, but also because he had just played his age-25 season (like Soto in 2024 with the Yankees).

Teams will look to offer longer, more lucrative contracts if they can buy a number of more prime years as part of the deal.

Keep in mind that Pete Alonso's rookie campaign came when he was 24 years old. That's more typical and the reason he's hitting free agency at age 29. This is one reason why Scott Boras will have a much harder time building a market for years and dollars on Alonso than he did on Soto, who came in at age 19.

Boras also happens to represent Gunnar Henderson. This is mentioned because Henderson is so close to playing right now and may fall into that category – sort of. The Orioles' star shortstop won't even be eligible for arbitration this offseason, won't be a free agent until after the 2028 season, and will then have completed his season at age 27 – not age 25 like Soto. Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz, another Boras client, will not be a free agent after the 2029 season, even after his age-27 season.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will enter free agency next offseason after his age-26 season, but his market may be limited by the industry's lack of enthusiasm for first basemen, conditioning issues and fluctuating production. For example, Guerrero has gone from an OPS-plus of 106 to 167, climbed above 133 twice and has a career mark of 137. Soto has never been below 142 and a career mark of 160, what a 25-year-old the eighth all-time is between Hall of Famers Rogers Hornsby and Joe DiMaggio.

This is also rare.

Now look around the majors. Young stars like Corbin Carroll, Jackson Chourio, Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. have already signed contract extensions. Mookie Betts signed his contract extension after his age-26 season without entering free agency. Ronald Acuna Jr. is under team control with the Braves until age 30, and Yordan Alvarez is under team control with the Astros until age 31. And more established stars like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani signed in their 30s, older and in control.

Remember, last offseason at least the Phillies, Mets, Yankees and Dodgers were willing to offer $300 million or more (especially with the posting fee and possible luxury tax implications) to try to land Yoshinobu Yamamoto sign who had never officiated a game during the season. That's because the right-hander was super talented, but also because he was coming off his age-24 season.

So an established major league player who doesn't face the same risk of injury as a pitcher will likely draw interest from these big four teams – and others. It's what will likely give Soto a total outlay of over $500 million – and perhaps well beyond that. That's why we expect Soto to have the Subway Series contention in the offseason that we didn't have in the postseason after the Mets were eliminated in the NLCS.

Fundamentally, the opportunity cost has to be factored into an offer for Soto, because something that looks like him – so special, so established, so young, so available – won't be around for a while.