The Sun and Lynx meet and a spot in the WNBA Finals is on the line

A chance at history and a spot in the WNBA Finals are on the line Tuesday (ESPN2, 8 p.m. ET) when the Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun play Game 5 of the semifinals.

The third-seeded Sun are hoping to win their first WNBA title, and the No. 2-seeded Lynx are looking to become the first franchise in the league to win five. While the top-seeded New York Liberty defeated the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces on Sunday to advance to the finals, Connecticut beat Minnesota that night and forced this series to go the distance and return to the Target Center in Minneapolis.

That wasn't a surprise. Most of their duels have been close all season. Six of the seven games between the Lynx and Sun were decided by single digits, including one in overtime.

While the Lynx appear to have the edge — they tied with New York for the league's best home record this season — that advantage hasn't played out as expected in recent WNBA history. Visiting teams have won the last seven winner-take-all playoff games in the WNBA, the last three of which came to the Sun – including beating Minnesota in the deciding game of the first round last year.

The Sun's DeWanna Bonner is particularly experienced at winning road elimination games: Between her time with the Phoenix Mercury and Connecticut, she won a WNBA-record 23 such games, according to ESPN Research.

Which team will survive and travel to the Big Apple for Game 1 of the Finals on Thursday? We look at some key factors in Tuesday's game.

The MVP runner-up had an outstanding postseason, averaging 27.2 points and 9.3 rebounds in six playoff games. But in the Sun's 92-82 win in Game 4 on Sunday, Bonner managed to limit Collier when the Sun needed it most.

According to ESPN Research, Alyssa Thomas was Collier's last defender in the first half for 29 games. The Lynx were 12 of 22 and scored 33 points on those plays, with Collier going 5 of 5 against Thomas.

In the second half, the 6-foot-4 Bonner was the 6-1 Collier's last defenseman in 21 games. The Lynx were 5 of 13 and scored 14 points, with Collier going 2 of 3.

Collier still finished the game with 29 points. But after slowing down a bit in the second half, the Sun rallied from a seven-point halftime deficit to win. The third quarter was particularly important, as the Suns outscored the Lynx 25-13.

Admittedly, the Sun held Collier to nine points in Game 2 of that series – it was only the second game all season in which she didn't score in double figures – and the Lynx still won 77-70. But if Connecticut can limit them on Tuesday, that's probably still the best path to success.

Will the Lynx restrict the Guardians of the Sun?

After an ankle injury forced Connecticut guard Ty Harris to drop out of Game 1 of the first round, she missed the next two games and played sparingly in the following two. But in Game 4 of Sunday's semifinals, she staged a dramatic comeback, playing 30 minutes and scoring 20 points.

The Sun's other guards – DiJonai Carrington, Marina Mabrey and Veronica Burton – combined for 29 points on Sunday. The combined 49 points were the most the Sun Guards scored in the series, matching what they scored in their first-round opener against the Indiana Fever.

Minnesota had the best defense against 3-point shots in the regular season. And we saw how well that worked against the Sun, especially in Game 3 where Connecticut was 3 of 20 from behind the arc.

But Harris' resurgence in this series presented another challenge for Minnesota.

Who are the other potential X-factors for both teams?

The Lynx and the Sun have veterans with significant postseason experience. No one has more than Bonner, who appeared in 86 career playoff games. Thomas was at 46 and Brionna Jones was at 37.

Natisha Hiedeman leads Minnesota with 40 career playoff appearances. Next up are fellow guards Courtney Williams (30) and Kayla McBride (25).

Cheryl Reeve of Minnesota and Stephanie White of Connecticut are the last two winners of the WNBA Coach of the Year award. They faced each other in a previous Game 5 (the 2015 WNBA Finals) when White was Indiana's coach.

Because there is so little separation between these teams in terms of leadership or experience, X-factors could be unexpected, like Harris was for Connecticut on Sunday.

Alanna Smith scored twice in double figures for Minnesota in the postseason and could be ready to step up again. Bridget Carleton has been consistent in the playoffs until Sunday's 2-of-11 shooting game with four points and could be poised for a comeback game for the Lynx.

For the Sun, Jones had a strong start to September, averaging 18.9 PPG over an eight-game span. In the seven games since, she has averaged 7.4 PPG, scoring in double figures just once. Could she have a breakout game on Tuesday?