The Sunday Minefield – November 3, 2024

The November general election is just two days away! I think it's safe to say that we're all looking forward to the end of non-stop TV commercials, radio ads, and political mailers. Alaska residents have cast early and absentee ballots in record numbers, with nearly 100,000 early and absentee ballots cast as of Friday (11/1/2024). These numbers are sure to rise as demand for early voting remains high. And the Alaska Public Offices Commission's (APOC) final campaign finance reports ahead of the election of legislative candidates were released this week.

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A reminder that the landmine is bringing Election Central back! Join us at the Egan Center on Tuesday evening for what is sure to be a great party. Thank you to all of our amazing sponsors who made this possible! Here is a new video promo we released today.

Early and postal voting

Alaskans have voted early in record numbers since it began Oct. 21. I provide daily updates on the reports the Elections Department has sent out. They send out a daily report on the total number of early votes. The absence reports appear twice a week. Below you will find the number of early and postal votes and the total through Friday, November 1st. Note that 75,725 mail-in ballots were requested.

57,224 early votes by November 1st:

• 20,158 Republicans (35.2%)
• 17,406 non-registered people (30.4%)
• 9,609 non-partisans (16.8%)
• 8,041 Democrats (14.1%)
• 1,296 AIP
• 394 Libertarians
• 320 everyone else

Until November 1st 38,191 postal ballots were returned:

• 11,689 Republicans (30.6%)
• 10,235 non-registered people (26.8%)
• 6,618 non-partisans (17.3%)
• 8,250 Democrats (21.6%)
• 1,024 AIP
• 179 Libertarian
• 196 everyone else

95,415 combined early and postal votes:

• 31,847 Republicans (33.4%)
• 27,641 not registered (29%)
• 16,227 non-partisans (17%)
• 16,291 Democrats (17.1%)
• 2,320 AIP
• 573 Libertarians
• 516 all others

As you can see, Republicans vote early and by mail more often than Democrats. Democrats vote by mail more often than vote early, and Republicans vote early more often than vote by mail. What's interesting, however, is the overall numbers compared to the percentages of registered Republicans and Democrats in the state.

Republicans make up just under 24% of registered voters, but so far their total of all early and mail-in votes is 33.4% — nearly 10 points higher than their statewide numbers.

Democrats make up just over 12% of registered voters, but their total early and absentee voting total so far is 17.1% — nearly five percentage points higher than their statewide numbers.

It's difficult to interpret exactly what these numbers mean because they could mean that many Republicans who normally vote on Election Day are voting early or by mail instead. Or it could mean that many low-turnout voters—voters who don't vote much—are voting early.

One thing is clear: we will see record numbers of early voting this year. And Republicans are definitely taking part in early voting and postal voting more often than in 2020. My gut feeling tells me that this is good for Republicans Nick Begich and bad for the representative Maria Peltola (D-Alaska). It will be a closer race than that Donald Trump/Kamala Harris Races in Alaska, with more Republicans in the state and more of them likely to vote this year, are the odds for Beg lift up Peltola are higher this year than in a year without a presidential election.

General election candidates raised more than $820,000 a week before the general election

The following is an excerpt from this week's special edition of the Alaska Political Report. Further information about the political report can be found here. A subscription costs $1,299/year per organization. Discounted rates are available for non-profit organizations and government entities. Our budget coverage begins with the Governor's budget proposal and we track everything in detail throughout the process. If you have any questions or would like to register, please email [email protected].

More than 100 candidates running for 50 legislative seats recently filed their seven-day campaign finance reports, which were due Oct. 29. These reports cover the period October 5th to 26th. They follow the 30-day reports for the general election, which was scheduled to take place on October 7th.

In addition to the 24-hour reports (candidates must report all donations over $250 within 24 hours in the nine days before an election), the 7-day reports are the last to be released before the election. The final reports are not due until February 18, 2025.

The total income of the legislative candidates for this reporting period is more than $820,000. The candidates reported a total cash balance of more than $2 million – money from the previous reporting period. In total, the candidates spent more than $1.38 million on campaign expenses. And after deducting debt, the candidates report a total cash balance of $1.26 million.

Total campaign revenue for all legislative candidates so far this election cycle is $5.3 million.

Of the top 20 fundraisers, only six are incumbents. The largest fundraiser was the Republican Senator from Anchorage. Kelly Merrickwho reported income of more than $50,000. The largest non-incumbent fundraiser was Republican Mia Costellowho reported income of just under $35,000.

Below is a summary of the reports for the candidates in each race. Note that contributions by individuals to candidates in Alaska have been unlimited since a Ninth Circuit ruling in 2021 struck down Alaska's annual contribution limit of $500 per year for individuals to candidates and a subsequent APOC order issued in 2022 has. They will remain unlimited unless the Legislature passes a bill with new limits consistent with the court ruling or a ballot initiative to reinstate limits is passed.

If you would like to see the full breakdown of each legislative candidate, consider subscribing to the Alaska Political Report. Email [email protected] to receive a copy of the latest special report.

Race to watch

In addition to the presidential and U.S. House races – both races to watch – there are 50 general elections this year (all 40 House seats and 10/20 Senate seats). Eleven incumbents are running unopposed, and many others are running against non-serious opponents. Here are the general elections to keep an eye on Tuesday night that could affect the organization of the Senate and House of Representatives:

Senate District D

senator Jesse Bjorkman (R – Nikiski) vs. Representative Ben Carpenter (R – Nikiski). “Democrat” Tina Wegener The ballot also lists who might turn out to be injured Bjorkmann.

Senate District L

senator Kelly Merrick (R – Eagle River) vs. Republican Jared Goecker. “Democrat” Lee Hammermeister The ballot also lists who might turn out to be injured Merrick.

Senate District N

senator David Wilson (R – Wasilla) vs. Republican Rob Yundt vs. Republicans Stephen Wright. This one will definitely be included in the list of shortlists. Based on the primary results, Wilson could get into trouble.

Senate District P

senator Scott Kawasaki (D – Fairbanks) vs. Republican Leslie Hajdukovich.

Senate District R

Open Senator Click on Bishop (R – Fairbanks) Seat

Representative Mike Cronk (R – Tok) vs. independent Savannah Fletcher. Alaska Independence Party candidate Bert Williams is also on the ballot.

House District 1

republican Jeremy Bynum vs. independent Grant Echohawk vs. independent Agnes Moran.

House District 6

Representative Sarah Vance (R – Homer) vs. independent Brent Johnson. republican Dawson Slaughter is also on the ballot.

House District 8

Open Ben Carpenter seat

republican Bill Elam vs. Republicans John Hillyer.

House District 9

Open representative Lady Shaw (R – Anchorage) Seat

republican Lucy Bauer vs. independent Ky Holland.

House District 10

Representative Craig Johnson (R – Anchorage) vs. Republican Chuck Kopp.

House District 11

Representative Julie Coulombe (R – Anchorage) vs. Independent Walter Featherly.

House District 15

republican Mia Costello vs. Democrat Denny Wells. “Democrat” Dustin Darden is also on the ballot.

House District 18

Representative Cliff Groh (D – Anchorage) vs. Republican David Nelson.

House District 22

Representative Stanley Wright (R – Anchorage) vs. Democrat Ted Eischeid.

House District 28

Open representative Jesse Sumner (R – Wasilla) seat

republican Steve Menard vs. Republicans Elexie Moore vs. Republicans Jessica Wright. This one will definitely be included in the list of shortlists.

House District 31

Representative Maxine Dibert (D – Fairbanks) vs. Republican Bart LeBon.

House District 36

Open Mike Cronk seat

republican Rebecca Schwanke vs. Democrat Branson Kowalski vs. Republicans Pam Goode vs. Libertarian James Fields. This one will definitely be included in the list of shortlists.

House District 38

Representative CJ McCormick vs. Democrat Nellie Jimmie vs. Democrat Victoria Sosa vs. Veterans Party of Alaska candidate Willy Keppel. Based on the primary results, McCormick He is unlikely to win re-election.

House District 40

Representative Thomas Baker (I – Kotzebue) vs. Democrat Robyn Burke vs. Democrat Saima Chase. Based on the primary results, Baker He is unlikely to win re-election. This one will definitely be included in the list of shortlists.

This week's loose unit

This week was a breeze. This week's Loose Unit is Training Commissioner Deena Bishop. Education is important for a very specific reason. This is a real Alaska Beacon article from this week:

Misquotes show education officials in Alaska were relying on generative AI, raising broader questions

There isn't really much more to say about it. The Commissioner of Education relying on AI to formulate policy citing studies that don't exist is extremely casual behavior.

If you have a nomination for this week Loose unitor if you have any political news, stories or gossip (or old pictures of politicians or officials), please email me at [email protected].