The Trump ally who could be the Democrats' best hope

It's also the best example of a vote-splitting trend, with a significant number of voters telling pollsters they want to support Trump for the White House but Democrat Ruben Gallego for the Senate.

The phenomenon could offer Democrats their best hope of holding the chamber, where they are defending 23 seats, many of them in states that Trump won or nearly won in 2020.

These include Ohio and Montana, two states where Trump has a large lead over Kamala Harris and where incumbent Democratic senators will have to significantly outperform her.

The Arizona seat was vacated by Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat who became an independent in 2022.

Mr. Gallego, a 44-year-old Marine combat veteran, learned from Ms. Sinema by distancing himself from Ms. Harris and the party leadership.

It appears to be paying off: He has a nearly seven-point lead over Ms. Lake, according to polling aggregate FiveThirtyEight, although Trump is nearly two points ahead of Ms. Harris in Arizona.

These divided loyalties were exposed by traditional Republican groups.

Notably, the Senate Leadership Fund, a powerful committee allied with Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, has declined to turn on the funding taps in Ms. Lake's race.

At the same time, Democratic groups have poured more than $60 million into the race, compared to about $16 million spent by Republican groups.

And while the president of the Arizona Police Association has endorsed Trump, the group also supported Mr. Gallego, citing his military service.

“Trump and Kari will win together”

Ms. Lake's campaign has downplayed the importance of voters sharing their voice.

“I think the polls are always wrong,” campaign aide Caroline Wren said earlier this month. “Donald Trump and Kari Lake will both win Arizona together.”

The Senate candidate has made it clear that she is not ready to go down without a fight, highlighting her tenacity in telling her life story.

The youngest of nine children, she grew up in a poor Catholic home in rural Iowa and financed her communications studies by working as a janitor waxing floors.

She began her television career as a weather forecaster before taking a hosting role on “Phoenix,” but claims she left her local Fox station after finding the media “immoral.”

Some of her former colleagues expressed skepticism about Ms. Lake's transformation, highlighting her past support for Barack Obama and an affair with Buddhism.

But her devotion to Trump's MAGA movement and her skills on stage have earned her a prominent position in the former Republican president's court.

She has secured prime speaking slots at major conservative events, from the Conservative Political Action Conference to the Republican National Convention.

“She’s fantastic,” Trump said of his loyal surrogate on the Arizona campaign trail earlier this year. “Kari Lake, I just think she’s going to be as good as it gets.”

Despite the warnings about her in the polls, Democrats still see her as a serious opponent.

While campaigning in the state this week, Clinton described Ms. Lake as “someone who is physically attractive but believes politics is a performance art.”

The agile Ms. Lake quickly countered the former president: “As a middle-aged woman, I’m flattered.

“I don't get compliments like that every day… (but) I thought I was a little too old for him. Does he not like interns?”