The US presidential election remains very close; late counting in Australian elections

The presidential election in the United States will take place on November 5th. In analyst Nate Silver's national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 48.6 to 47.4, an increase for Trump since last Wednesday, when Harris led 48.8 to 47.2. Harris' national lead peaked on Oct. 2, when she led 49.4-45.9.

The US president is elected not by the national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives electoral votes equal to its seats in the Federal House of Representatives (based on population) and senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes on a winner-takes-all basis, requiring 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

In terms of the national popular vote, the Electoral College is biased against Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote win to be the narrow Electoral College favorite in Silver's model.

In Silver's polling average, Trump is now ahead by 0.3% (19 electoral votes) in Pennsylvania, which was undecided last Wednesday. He leads North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) by 1.3-1.4 points and Arizona (11) by 2.1 points. Harris leads in Michigan (15 electoral votes) by 0.7 points and in Wisconsin (ten) by 0.5 points. It's a tie in Nevada (six).

If the election results accurately reflect current polls, Trump would win the Electoral College by 281 votes to 251, with Nevada's six electoral votes still undecided.

The good news for Harris is that state polls in the last two weeks have not moved as strongly toward Trump as the national polls. If Harris takes the lead again in Pennsylvania, she will likely win. But Harris would probably be better positioned in Pennsylvania now if she had chosen the popular Pennsylvania governor, Josh Shapiro, as her running mate.

Silver's model now gives Trump a 53 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, unchanged from last Wednesday. Even if Trump is narrowly ahead, it's still essentially a 50-50 coin toss. There is a 26% chance that Harris will win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College. The FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Trump a 54% chance of winning.

There is still a little more than a week until the election. If either Harris or Trump moves late or one of the candidates does better in their polls, that candidate could win decisively. Although the election seems very close now, it may not be so close when we see the results.

Silver wrote Saturday that concerns about illegal immigration were a key issue for Trump supporters. In the three years that Joe Biden was president, apprehensions on the U.S. southwest border rose to record highs, with 2.2 million apprehensions in fiscal year 2022

LNP margin widened in Queensland due to late count

With 68% of registered voters now counted in Saturday's Queensland election, The Poll Bludger's results give the Liberal National Party (LNP) 44 of the 93 seats, Labor 27, Katter's Australian Party (KAP) three and the Independents one .

Including the yet-to-be-decided seats where a party is in the lead, there are 53 LNP, 34 Labor, four KAP, one Green and one Independent. In Saturday night's article, the LNP led Labor by 49 seats to 38. Analyst Kevin Bonham expects the final result to be 52 LNP, 34 Labor, five KAP, one Green and one Independent.

Vote shares have also shifted to the LNP, which now leads Labor by 54.1 to 45.9 in the estimated two-party vote, compared to 53.1 to 46.9 on Saturday evening. The primary votes are: 42.0% LNP, 32.7% Labour, 9.4% Greens, 7.8% One Nation, 2.6% KAP and 5.5% for all others.

In the national two-party vote, the most accurate poll in the last two weeks is currently a YouGov poll, which gave the LNP a 54.5-45.5 lead. Resolve gave the LNP a 53-47 lead, Newspoll gave them a 52.5-47.5 lead and uComms performed worst, only giving the LNP a 51-49 lead.

Analyst Ben Raue wrote in the Guardian that Labor is behind in 11 of its 14 regional seats, while doing much better in southeast Queensland. Right-wing parties have gained in regional areas in Australia and internationally over the past decade, while left-wing parties have gained in urban areas with higher levels of education.

In Australia, Labor can win elections by dominating major cities, except in Queensland and Tasmania. I wrote about this in April 2022 and May 2021.

Final result of the ACT election

The ACT uses the Hare-Clark proportional representation method with five five-member electorates for a total of 25 seats. A quota is one sixth of the votes or 16.7%.

The final result of the October 19 election was: ten Labor parties (stable since 2020), nine Liberals (stable), four Greens (down two) and two independents (up two). Labor retained its position in coalition with the Greens; They have ruled the ACT since 2001.

The ACT-wide vote shares were 34.1% Labor (down 3.7%), 33.5% Liberal (down 0.4%), 12.2% Green (down 1.3%), 8.5% of independents for Canberra (new) and 11.7% for everyone else (down 3.1%). %).

In Brindabella the Liberals had 2.59 ratings, Labor 2.03, the Greens 0.54 and the Independents for Canberra 0.46.

It was originally thought that the postal elections would help the Liberals win the final seat, but they did not perform well enough in the postal elections and the Greens defeated the Liberals for the final seat by 166 votes, or 0.02 odds. Bonham followed that count.

Teal wins Pittwater by a larger margin than expected

By-elections were held in New South Wales on October 19 in the Liberal-held seats of Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater. Labor did not contest any of these seats and the Liberals easily retained Epping and Hornsby.

In Pittwater, The Poll Bludger's election night forecast was for blue-green independent Jacqui Scruby to win 54.1 to 45.9, but she actually won 56.2 to 43.8, a 6.8% increase for Scruby since corresponds to the state elections in 2023. The primary vote was 54.5% for Scruby (up 18.6%), 41.5% for Libertarian (down 3.2%) and 4.0% for a Libertarian (new). Labor and the Greens, who together reached 17.0% in 2023, did not stand.