The votes for Nikki Haley in Utah's Republican primary could produce surprises on Election Day

In the fog of the presidential election, I did not see any assessment of the two major parties' prospects in Utah, as was the case in the primary election on March 5 of this year. There are several reasons why primary votes may not be representative, but they provide concrete evidence because they represent actual votes. Based on the votes received by Joe Biden in the Democratic election and Donald Trump and Nikki Haley in the Republican election, a picture emerges that differs from polls or most published expectations.

Joe Biden received 59,235 votes in the Democratic primary. There were also 3,562 votes in the Democratic primary and 3,065 votes cast for Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips. Donald Trump and Niki Haley received 48,350 and 36,621 votes, respectively, in the Republican primary. A total of 150,833 votes were cast, 56.3% for Republicans and 43.7% for Democrats.

The key question in the last election is what happens to the Haley votes, assuming the Democratic votes go to Harris Walz. If Trump gets 2/3 of that, he loses to Harris 48.2% to 51.8%. If Harris gets 2/3 of the Haley vote, she wins Utah 59.9% to 40.1%. The magic number of Haley votes Harris needs to win Utah, assuming she also gets the votes of Williamson and Phillips, is 9,555 of the 36,621 votes cast for Haley — 26.1% of the votes she gets in Utah has. Trump's magic number is 27,067 Haley votes, 73.9% of them.

What then did the Haley votes in February mean? That is indeed the question, as Democrats have a decisive numerical advantage in winning them over.

Kenneth Tingey, Logan

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