The weather forecast for Election Day is in — and the conditions could help determine who wins

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The Election Day forecast is in — and rainy weather could impact voter turnout in several states and help decide the winner.

Voters have already started heading to the polls for early voting, but Tuesday is the official election day, when America will decide between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris.

More than 20 states could experience showers or thunderstorms next Tuesday as a cold front sweeps across the country.

“The middle of the country is the area to watch for possible weather disruptions to the elections. “Michigan and Wisconsin are two swing states where we could see wet weather on Election Day,” Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather's lead remote expert, said Tuesday evening.

Weather can play an important role on Election Day, as rainy or cold weather can prevent people from having to wait in line for hours to cast their vote. This could be a deciding factor in swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan, states where the expected winner is only expected to win by a few thousand votes.

Richard Nixon might have beaten John F. Kennedy in the 1960 presidential election if the weather had worsened in several key states, according to a study published in 2007. Heavy rains can also affect turnout among voters who only vote occasionally, according to research conducted last year.

“The majority of voters are very engaged and will find a way to go to the polls unless there is extreme weather such as a heavy snowstorm, torrential rain or severe thunderstorms,” said Senior Vice President of AccuWeather and President of State College , Pennsylvania Councilman Evan Myers told the forecasting agency.

In 2020, the weather was generally mild and there was virtually no rainfall. There was some rainfall in the northwest and parts of New England.

This year, however, could be a different story. The weather forecasting company said there was a risk of severe weather in parts of the Gulf Coast, Great Lakes, New England and the central United States.

“At least 75% of the lower 48 states will be dry on Election Day, including heavily populated areas along the Interstate 95 corridor to the east and west, including California and Arizona,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Brett Anderson said.

From Saturday through Election Day, significant rainfall and possible flash flooding are expected in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois and Iowa.

“It will be warm ahead of this front, so we expect some thunderstorms in places like Little Rock, Memphis and maybe even as far north as southern Illinois. The lower to middle Mississippi Valley extending into the western Tennessee Valley could experience thunderstorms on Election Day,” Pastelok said.

Thunderstorms and lightning could be disruptive or dangerous if voters had to wait outside at polling places, he noted.

Showers are also possible in the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, New England and Upper Midwest regions.

Weather in other swing states will be largely partly cloudy on Election Day and is not expected to impact voter turnout in those areas.

In the swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, high temperatures next week will be between 70 and 80 degrees. Highs in the low 70s are also forecast in southwest Arizona. Nevada will be a little cooler.