Thursday Night Football: Jets vs. Texans fantasy football breakdown

You can watch “Thursday Night Football: Jets vs. Texans” at 8:20 p.m. ET/5:20 p.m. PT on Amazon Prime Video.

Two teams with mirror-inverted records meet tonight at TNF as the New York Jets (2-6) host the Houston Texans (6-2). The Jets are stuck in another season of high expectations and disappointing results, while the Texans, once again atop the AFC South, are trying to stay afloat while dealing with a host of devastating injuries.

Let's get to the history of the tape.

Will the Jets' offense finally take off?

Much of the fantasy football offseason was spent hyped about “Aaron Rodgers is the rising tide that lifts all (green) boats.” The math was simple: Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall were top-notch, proven individual talents held back by the Jets' abysmal quarterback play. A healthy Rodgers, fully recovered from his Achilles tendon injury — along with a retooled offensive line — would be the missing key. That belief catapulted Hall into the top five of most fantasy drafts, while Wilson was a common pick in the 1-2 round.

So far this belief has remained just that – a belief.

Instead, the Jets find themselves at 2-6, mired in coaching controversy and front-page headlines with an overwhelming sense of wasted potential. Their most recent debacle: loss to the previously 1-6, Drake Maye-less Patriots, 25-22.

Aaron Rodgers was a shell of his former self; Not even the addition of his old pal Davante Adams has helped him deliver a top-notch performance over the last two weeks. One wonders if Tom Brady, being so good in his 40s, is setting the bar way too high for other older quarterbacks.

The O-line was in the middle of the field in pass protection and slightly above the middle in run blocking. And even though Hall is currently fourth in total running back fantasy rating (half-PPR) and Wilson is 11th, it seemed like more was expected of both players per game (Hall is 16th among RBs; Wilson is 14th among WRs). ).

It all goes back to Rodgers. Sure, he wasn't terrible, but as mentioned, we all expected more.

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Is this the game where he shines and brings the Jets offense together? Well, it wouldn't be due to a lack of pressure. The Jets MUST win this game to stay alive in the playoff hunt. They welcome a limping Texans team that has numerous injuries along the offensive line and receiver, which is excellent news for the much-maligned Jets defense. The Texans' defense isn't the friendliest to opposing passing games, but it's also not the most difficult hurdle to overcome.

The fantasy managers of Hall, Adams and Wilson are no doubt looking forward to all the easy fantasy matchups to come, and perhaps that's some consolation. But again – it all goes back to Rodgers. Unless his play improves, these stars' rankings will continue to look good throughout the season, while the per-game rankings tell the real story. If Rodgers doesn't deliver in this game and the real season is on the line (for all intents and purposes), fantasy football managers should start lowering the expected caps for the big names on Gang Green.

Who will fill in for the Texans?

As mentioned, the Texans enter this contest comfortably atop the AFC South, but if you asked anyone on the team, the mood would certainly be less than flawless.

After Nico Collins was out for a month with a hamstring injury, the team lost Stefon Diggs to a season-ending knee injury. Most teams couldn't survive losing their top two receivers. Tank Dell hasn't been as explosive as he used to be as he continues to work on recovering from an injury. And we haven't even mentioned the injuries on defense and offense.

Luckily, the Texans have CJ Stroud.

Stroud will be needed to play his best football against a desperate New York team that has its back against the wall. And a Stroud at the peak of his powers is still dangerous, even without full armament. But he also needs help.

The obvious candidate to help Stroud in this game is Joe Mixon, and the veteran running back has done just that. And it would probably be up to the Texans not to challenge the Jets' secondary and instead attack the defense on the ground. But who will Stroud rely on when it's time to die? Dell is still there, but as mentioned, he wasn't himself; He has played more games with fewer than 10 fantasy points than he has receiving touchdowns this season. Perhaps Dalton Schultz continues to see his target share increase and Stroud attacks the Jets at center. Or maybe another receiver like Xavier Hutchison or John Metchie III or even the ghost of Robert Woods will deliver.

I'm not optimistic. This isn't an easy one to predict, but for Week 9 I would bench Stroud in this game in favor of Matthew Stafford (54% on the roster) or Joe Flacco (10%).

Bye-Week TE Pickup-and-Play: Tyler Conklin, New York Jets (20% on roster)

Are you missing the services of George Kittle tonight? So why not give Conklin a start?

The Texans have been tough on opposing tight ends this season, no question. But if you look closer, you'll see that they've allowed four catches or a touchdown at the position in four of eight games this season. The other four? Twice the Colts (who don't have a scoring TE and had Anthony Richardson under center in both contests), the Jaguars (without Evan Engram) and the Bills (the Bills' entire passing offense was completely swallowed up in this game).

That doesn't mean Conklin is suddenly demanding targets from Adams, Wilson and Hall, or that he's going to “figure out” the Texans' defense — or that he's even a top-tier fantasy TE option. But we've seen Rodgers look like Conklin in the red zone this season; he has 5 targets inside the 20 this year – that's a lot when you consider Adams, Wilson, Hall and even Shoot Lazard have created a red zone look for this team. He is also on a two-game touchdown streak. So since the Jets aren't great at converting rushing touchdowns in the red zone, I expect Rodgers to look to the tight ends for his scoring opportunities. There may be no floor, but with Conklin there is an advantage when you need it.