Top picks from the NFL betting splits for Sunday October 20th

Today we have a rich Sunday slate of NFL Week 7 action with 12 games to choose from. Let's examine where the smart money is using our VSiN NFL betting splits. These come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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The Texans (5-1) have won three games in a row and just dismantled the Patriots 41-21, making them easily 7-point away favorites. Likewise, the Packers (4-2) have won two in a row and narrowly beat the Cardinals 34-13, making them a 5.5-point home favorite. This series began with Green Bay listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The audience sees two good teams competing against each other and doesn't know whether to score or record the points. However, despite this even 50/50 spread bet split, we saw the Packers go from -1.5 to -3. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all when the bets are even because, in theory, the game is even and oddsmakers have no reason to adjust the price. So, based on the line movement, we can conclude that the pro money has sided with the Packers, who are ahead at home. Green Bay gets 51% of the spread bets but 71% of the spread dollars, a clear “lower stakes, higher dollars” betting split, and more evidence to support Wiseguy. The Packers are considered the non-conference favorite, with the lack of familiarity favoring the better team that is expected to win. The Packers enjoy a slim schedule advantage as they play their second straight home game while the Texans play their second straight road game. Those who want to follow the Packers' sharp move but are wary of a close game that might not cover the key number could also opt to play Green Bay on the money line at -150. Short favorites -3 or less are right on the money line at 27-15 (64%) this season.

The Lions (4-1) have won three straight games and just defeated the Cowboys 47-9, easily leaving them as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings (5-0) narrowly outscored the Jets 23-17 and were neutral favorites by 2.5 points in London. This line started with Minnesota listed as a 1-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is being favored and rushes to the window to support the Lions. However, even though 68% of spread bets are on Detroit, this line is actually stagnant at -1. Some stores are showing -1.5, others even hit -2.5 earlier in the week. This suggests a sharp freeze on the “Fade the Trendy Dog” line or a reversed line movement for the Vikings, as the line has either stayed the same or shifted in favor of Minnesota despite being the unpopular play. Minnesota is one of the contrarian games of the week as they only take 32% of the spread bets in one of the most heavily bet games early Sunday. Minnesota has corresponding betting value as a short favorite in a game with a high total (50.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover. The Vikings could also be a moneyline play (-125) for those wary of placing points around a key number. Minnesota enjoys a notable “rest vs. fatigue” advantage as they had a bye during Sunday's Lions game and now must travel for their second straight road game. Favorites for a bye are 171-139 ATS (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2004.

The Jets (2-4) have lost three games in a row and fell just short to the Bills, 23-20, as they were unable to catch up as 1.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Steelers (4:2) have just put a two-game defeat behind them with a 32:13 win against the Raiders and are clearly the away favorites with 3.5 points. The early opener of this Sunday Night Football showdown was Steelers -1 at home. We quickly saw the line change to Jets -1, then -1.5 and now -2. Essentially, the entire movement has been in favor of New York since the beginning. The Jets receive 63% of the spread bets but 73% of the spread dollars, a clear “lower stakes, higher dollars” betting split that indicates light public support but also respected smart money. Away favorites are 21-9 ATS (70%) this season. New York has a buy-low value as a team that failed to cover the previous week against a sell-high team that covered easily. The Jets play as non-division favorites, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team that is expected to win. Wiseguys also appear to be keeping an eye on the Jets on the moneyline (-135), as New York receives 64% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars. The away favorites are clearly ahead this season with 25:7 (78%). Shawn Smith, the lead referee, has a 55-38 ATS (59%) advantage over the away team historically. The Jets could enjoy a boost on offense as recently signed WR Davante Adams is expected to make his team debut.