Top tips from the CFB betting splits for Saturday October 19th

Today we have an extensive slate of college football action on Saturday Week 8 with approximately 100 games to choose from. Let’s explore where smart money is headed using our VSiN CFB betting splits. These come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10 minutes.

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Auburn (2-4) has lost three straight games and just lost to Georgia 31-13, but held on as a 21.5-point road winner. Meanwhile, Missouri (5-1, ranked 19th) narrowly defeated UMass 45-3 and is the away favorite by 27.5 points. That line started with Missouri listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public sees an easy win and coverage for Missouri, and 76% of spread bets have the home favorite scoring the points. However, despite this lopsided support, Missouri has fallen from -6.5 to -3.5. Some deals even go as low as -3 on game day. The movement toward Auburn was steady and one-sided from the start. This is particularly notable since Auburn only receives 24% of the spread bets, indicating notable contrarian value and a strong reversal in their favor. Short street dogs +4 or less have achieved about 54% ATS over the last decade. Since approximately 3 points are awarded for home advantage, this means that the teams are roughly even on a neutral field. Auburn has additional buy-low value as an unranked road dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Auburn is a conference dog system matchup where the built-in familiarity and rivalry aspect levels the playing field and benefits the team in scoring points. Auburn also enjoys a rest advantage as they had a bye in the Missouri game last Saturday. The pros appear to be leaning downward as we have seen the overall score drop from 51.5 to 49. Those at the bottom get just 26% of the bets but 41% of the money, a sharply contrarian “lower stakes, higher dollars” betting split.

South Carolina (3-3) just had a valiant performance against Alabama, losing 27-25, but easily covered as road dogs with 21.5 points. On the other hand, Oklahoma (4:2) just had to beat Texas 34:3 and failed as a 16.5-point home winner. This line started with Oklahoma being listed as a 3-point home favorite. The crowd leans toward Oklahoma, which has the better win-loss record and enjoys home-field advantage. Although 56% of spread bets saw Oklahoma win, we saw the line shift drastically in South Carolina's favor and the Gamecocks went from a 3-point road dog to a 1-point road favorite. Some stores even go up further to South Carolina -1.5 on game day. In other words, we are seeing a sharp “dog-to-favorite” reversal in South Carolina. The move was one-sided and there was no apparent buyback from Oklahoma. Those who want to watch South Carolina's sharp move but are wary of coming up short now in what could be a close game could instead target the Gamecocks on the money line at -120. South Carolina receives 36% of the moneyline bets but 48% of the moneyline dollars, further evidence that pro money is on the Gamecocks' side to win outright. South Carolina leads the way on offense, averaging 27.5 PPG, compared to Oklahoma averaging 24.3 PPG. The Gamecocks will look to gain control in the running game as they average 175 rushing yards per game.

LSU (5-1, 8th) just defeated Ole Miss 29-26 to win as a 4-point home dog. Likewise, Arkansas (4-2) just shocked Tennessee 19-14 and won as the home team by 14 points. This line opened with LSU listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is far too short and rushes to the window to negotiate the points for LSU. Even though we received 76% of the spread bets, LSU went from -3 to -2.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to report when they already support LSU? Because smart money has sided with home dog Arkansas plus the points (especially at +3), triggering a sharp inverted line move in their favor. Arkansas receives just 24% of the spread bets but 38% of the spread dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper bets in their favor. Arkansas is also one of the best controversial players of the day, as they are extremely unpopular in a heavily bet game at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Razorbacks are a buy-low value as an unranked home conference dog against a ranked sales opponent. Arkansas enjoys a notable rest advantage as they have a bye and are playing their third straight home game, while LSU played on Saturday and is now on the road a lot. The Razorbacks are a dog-can-score system matchup (33 PPG), which allows them to keep pace or cover the back door. Arkansas also has the better defense, allowing 19.1 PPG while LSU gives up 22.3 PPG.