Tottenham vs Man City Prediction: EFL Cup Preview

Two of England's biggest clubs meet in the EFL Cup on Wednesday in what looks set to be the tie of the round. Man City's domestic form gives them an edge with the Opta supercomputer, but is it justified? Find out more with our Tottenham vs Man City prediction.

Tottenham vs Man City stats: Key takeaways

• Man City are the clear favorites with the Opta supercomputer, winning this game 56.7% of the time.
• After failing to score in each of their first five away games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium between 2019 and 2023, Man City have won their last two there without conceding a goal.
• Tottenham have been eliminated from their last three League Cup games against other Premier League teams. They went to Chelsea in 2021-22, Nottingham Forest in 2022-23 and Fulham in 2023-24.

Tottenham host Premier League leaders Manchester City at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Wednesday where they will face each other in the fourth round of the EFL Cup.

This will be the first League Cup meeting between the teams since the 2021 final, which Man City won 1-0 at Wembley Stadium. However, Tottenham have won the other three games between the two teams in the EFL Cup, namely in 1992 (1-0), 2003 (3-1) and 2007 (2-0).

These teams had opposite fortunes over the weekend. Spurs struggled away at Crystal Palace and lost 1-0. In a fairly lifeless performance from the away team, Jean-Philippe Mateta's first-half goal was enough to secure all three points for the Eagles.

It was another frustrating example of Tottenham's inconsistency under Ange Postecoglou. The victories over West Ham and AZ Alkmaar were now offset by heavy defeats against Brighton and Crystal Palace.

They currently sit ninth in the Premier League and are expected to finish sixth. Winning the Europa League will be Spurs' priority, but with only four games left to play, the EFL Cup is arguably their best chance of winning a trophy this season.

However, the Spurs almost didn't get that far. Championship side Coventry City were just minutes away from knocking him out in the third round. The Sky Blues led 1-0 before goals from Djed Spence and Brennan Johnson turned the game on its head.

Manchester City go into this game on a five-game winning streak in all competitions since their 1-1 draw with Newcastle. Their most recent opponents, Southampton, may have feared the worst when Erling Haaland scored his 11th league goal of the season to open the scoring at the weekend.

But despite 22 shots and almost three expected goals, Pep Guardiola's men had to settle for a narrow victory. However, they remain the clear favorites to win a record fifth consecutive Premier League title.

City have already performed better in the EFL Cup than last year. They were eliminated by Newcastle in the third round of the 2023/24 season, but were able to clearly beat Watford in the third round thanks to goals from Jérémy Doku and Matheus Nunes.

As for the team, Kevin De Bruyne, Jack Grealish and Doku will all be missing for City. Son Heung-min, who missed Spurs' defeat to Palace at the weekend, didn't recover in time to play here.

Tottenham vs Manchester City Prediction

Man City's home form makes them strong favorites to win this game using the Opta supercomputer.

You have to look back to last year's FA Cup final to find out the last time they lost a competitive game. They have also had their way against Spurs recently, winning their last two games at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium without conceding a goal.

Based on these factors, the model gives them a 56.7% chance of winning the game in 90 minutes. Spurs advance in 21.5% of simulations, while in 21.8% of simulations there is a draw that would lead to a penalty shootout.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign a skill score to over 13,000 national soccer teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, with zero representing the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 representing the best team in the world.

Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here are the Opta Power rankings for each team.

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