Tropical Storm Rafael is forming and is expected to become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean on Monday afternoon and is expected to briefly become a Category 2 hurricane over Cuba later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center. It is then expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico and remain west of Florida's Gulf Coast.

As of 4 p.m., Tropical Storm Rafael was 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and 395 miles southeast of Grand Cayman. It has sustained winds of 45 mph and is moving north at 9 mph.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the lower and central Florida Keys, including Key West, Channel 5 Bridge and Dry Tortugas.

Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to move near Jamaica on Monday evening, near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday and approach Cuba on Wednesday, the NHC said.

It is expected to rapidly strengthen and become a hurricane on Tuesday, the NHC said.

Is Tropical Storm Rafael Likely to Hit Florida?

Rafael is expected to remain more than 250 miles west of Florida's Gulf Coast, meaning no direct impact on Central Florida is expected, although it will bring rain to the area by midweek.

The current forecast calls for minimal impacts, primarily downpours on Wednesday and Thursday with a small chance of an isolated tornado. Wind gusts may be 25-35 mph.

When does hurricane season end?

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, 2024.

So far this year we have had 17 named storms.

Of the 17, there were six tropical storms and ten hurricanes. Three hurricanes made landfall in Florida: Debby, Helene and Milton.