Tropical Storm Warning for Florida Keys due to Tropical Storm Rafael

MIAMI – Tropical Storm Rafael continues to strengthen and remains on track to become a hurricane, as parts of the Caribbean brace for devastating hurricane-force winds, torrential rain and a dangerous storm surge.

The late-season tropical storm was initially classified as Tropical Depression 18 by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) before the system became more organized and developed sufficient circulation center and high wind speeds to achieve tropical storm status by Monday afternoon.

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL TRACKER: FORECAST CONES, SPAGHETTI SLOTS, MAPS, WARNINGS AND MORE

The NHC said Rafael was in an atmospheric and oceanic environment that was “highly conducive to strengthening.”

Additionally, the NHC said computer forecast models show there is a “significant probability” that Rafael could rapidly intensify as it approaches the Cayman Islands and Cuba.

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“However, after Rafael moves into the Gulf of Mexico, drier air and stronger vertical wind shear should halt the strengthening process,” the NHC said in its forecast discussion.

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Where is Tropical Storm Rafael?

This graphic shows the latest on Tropical Storm Rafael.
(FOX Weather)

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According to the latest report from the NHC, Rafael is located about 65 miles southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, and is moving northwest at 13 miles per hour.

Rafael has maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour and the strength is expected to continue. Tropical storms are expected to continue affecting Jamaica through Tuesday afternoon.

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Warnings have been issued for Tropical Storm Rafael.

(FOX Weather)

Numerous tropical weather warnings have been issued across the region from the Caribbean to the southeastern United States

A new tropical storm warning has been issued for the lower and central Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge and for Dry Tortugas. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A tropical storm warning is also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camagüey and Las Tunas.

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What is the forecast for Tropical Storm Rafael?

The forecast cone for Tropical Storm Rafael.

(FOX Weather)

According to the NHC, Rafael is expected to continue its general northwestward movement over the next few days. On this track, the tropical storm is expected to move near Jamaica on Tuesday morning, near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening, and near or over western Cuba on Wednesday.

There are still some questions about what will happen next with Tropical Storm Rafael after it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, and those along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress.

“It is too early to determine what impact, if any, Rafael may have on portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” the NHC said. “Residents in this area should monitor forecast updates regularly.