Trump or Harris? The Turkish government cannot decide which would be best

There are still four days until the US presidential election and the Turkish leadership in Ankara is divided over which candidate they favor.

Turkish officials, speaking anonymously to Middle East Eye, believe either outcome would have consequences for Turkey's foreign policy as well as regional and global dynamics.

Many observers in Turkey believe that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is waiting for the election results in the United States before making his own political decisions, including on the composition of his Cabinet.

Nevertheless, officials were particularly and unusually reserved about their preferred candidate during this election campaign period.

Erdogan's only public contact with either candidate was a phone call to Donald Trump after the former president was shot at a rally in Pennsylvania in July.

Media reports said Erdogan tried to arrange a meeting with Kamala Harris on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York in September, but several Turkish officials denied this.

“Some officials floated the idea, but ultimately no formal proposal was made to Harris' team,” a source familiar with the episode told MEE. “We kept our distance from both candidates and did not seek a meeting with Trump.”

The leaders of other neighboring countries, such as United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, decided to meet both Trump and Harris at the General Assembly in September.

Ups and downs

Turkey's lack of cooperation with the candidates is due to two things, according to sources in Ankara.

First, Ankara is deeply confused about the potential impact – pros and cons – of a Trump or Harris presidency on Türkiye’s relations with the US.

Many in Erdogan's circle believe that a Trump presidency could work well with his administration, as the two have had frequent joint appointments such as phone calls and meetings in the past, giving the Turkish president space to speak out on issues close to his heart .

In a 2019 call, for example, Trump gave Erdogan the green light for a military offensive in northern Syria, allowing Ankara to seize territory and deny U.S.-allied Syrian Kurdish armed groups uninterrupted territory beyond the Turkish border.

When Washington sanctioned Turkey over its purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems, Trump also chose the lightest sanctions package presented to him.

Despite the ups and downs, such as Trump imposing sanctions on Turkish ministers over the 2018 jailing of U.S. pastor Andrew Brunson, people in Erdogan's entourage believe both leaders have similar mentalities and could work together for broader goals.

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For example, they say that Berat Albayrak, Erdogan's son-in-law and former finance minister, had a good relationship with Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner.

However, several politicians from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and some top bureaucrats in relevant Turkish ministries say this is a misleading picture of Turkey's relations with Washington under the Trump administration.

“They always say that Trump and Erdogan had a good dialogue. What exactly have we achieved with this?” said a top politician from the AKP.

Others say that Turkish ministries and institutions are unable to properly cooperate with their US counterparts due to the constant exodus of officials on the American side.

They also complain that Trump often made promises and deals that resulted in no progress or follow-up. Aside from big promises and attention-grabbing statements, little to nothing was achieved during Trump's first term in office, it is said.

For example, despite US President Joe Biden's apparent antipathy towards Erdogan, both leaders authorized their foreign and defense ministries and intelligence agencies to work together and find a middle ground on issues such as Sweden and Finland joining NATO.

Earlier this year, Washington agreed to sign a multibillion-dollar F-16 fighter jet contract with Ankara after Erdogan ratified Sweden's NATO membership.

Bilateral trust has gradually grown to the point where both sides are discussing a possible sale of next-generation F-35 fighter jets to Turkey and the Biden administration has relayed messages to Iran through Turkish interlocutors in Ankara.

Watch and wait

Some Turkish officials expect that momentum could be maintained by a Harris administration.

Harris herself doesn't have many red lines on foreign policy and the expectation is that she would use bureaucracy and foreign policy gurus within the Democratic establishment to craft institutional policy.

Ankara's previous attempts to contact Trump officials before the 2016 election were revealing

For example, your current national security adviser, Philip Gordon, could be considered a Turkey expert because he has extensive experience working in the country and with its government. This could mean a stable and negotiated relationship rather than the ups and downs of the Trump administration.

The second reason why Ankara remained diligently silent is that the election was incredibly close. The polls have been very close for weeks and there is no indication that any candidate is more likely to emerge victorious.

Ankara's previous attempts to contact Trump officials before the 2016 election were also instructive.

Turkey's attempt to influence Trump's then-national security adviser Michael Flynn backfired massively, as investigations into his activities treated Turkish efforts on par with Russian influence campaigns.

This time the Turkish government is not looking for adventure and is taking a strict approach to the elections.