Trump will win the 2024 presidential election

The “most accurate economist in the world” predicts that Donald Trump will win the presidency and that Republicans will likely take full control of Congress on November 5th.

Christophe Barraud, chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, also says a Trump victory could boost the economy in the short term but brings longer-term complications, especially given the soaring deficit.

“Looking at various metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modeler predictions and financial markets, the most likely outcomes currently are: (1) #Trump win (2) #GOP runaway win,” Barraud wrote on X.

Barraud, 38, has been ranked by Bloomberg as the top economic forecaster for the U.S. economy in 11 of the last 12 years – earning him the nickname “the most accurate economist in the world.”

The French expert said all signs point to a Trump victory and a Republican takeover of power in the Senate, and while it may be harder for Republicans to gain control of the House of Representatives, it currently appears they will be victorious be.

But if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency, there will likely be a continuation of status quo split control of Congress, Barraud said in an interview with Business Insider.

If Trump wins and control of Congress splits between the parties for some reason, much of his domestic economic agenda would stall and he would likely focus on tariffs, something that could slow the U.S. economy in the long term and hamper global growth Expert added.

In the scenario Barraud believes is most likely – a Republican victory in the White House and Congress – he expects gross domestic product to rise by about 2.1% to 2.3% in 2025.

Regardless of who is in the White House, the U.S. economy will likely continue to hum, at least in the short term, Barraud said.

Still, a big potential risk with Trump is that he will cut taxes without the resources to pay for them, causing the deficit to explode, Barraud said.

He said he expects the 10-year Treasury yield to initially rise from about 4.29% to 4.5% under Trump. From there he expects the value to rise to around 5%.

Barraud believes that overall, a Trump White House would mean U.S. GDP would likely exceed most consensus forecasts, which expect growth of 2.6% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

Recent polls generally show the presidential race to be a tough competition, although Trump is leading in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of national polls and contested state polls.

The so-called “Nostradamus” historian Dr. Allan Lichtman, who has predicted nine of the past 10 elections, is betting that Harris will win.

Famed poll data guru Nate Silver has suggested that his gut instinct is that Trump will win. The election is just eight days away.