Trump's lead over Harris in betting market dwindles as platforms tighten odds | US News

Betting markets fell sharply on the eve of Tuesday's presidential election, narrowing Donald Trump's lead over Kamala Harris in Americans' vote.

The former president and his allies have touted in recent weeks that the betting market's forecasts are more accurate than traditional polls, with top platforms pricing him well ahead of Harris.

As Election Day approaches, Trump's chances of winning become slimmer, and Harris even took the lead back on one platform this weekend.

Betting markets are becoming increasingly popular during election campaigns, and prominent apps such as Polymarket and Kalshi are conquering the app stores.

Many betting market predictions about who is most likely to win the election also differed from typical opinion polls. While the polls suggested an incredibly close battle for the White House, betting platforms had Trump clearly in the lead a few weeks ago.

But Trump's chances have apparently decreased. Polymarket put it at 58% on Monday, compared with 67% last week; Kalshi put it at 53% instead of 65%.

Another platform rated Harris' chances as higher than Trump's for the first time in nearly a month. According to PredictIt, the Democrat had a 53% chance of winning, giving Trump a 51% chance.

Bets in these markets are bids on political futures contracts. Buying a contract – like the prospect of a Harris or Trump presidency – drives up the price of that contract or the perceived likelihood of it happening.

For example, if you had turned to Polymarket on Monday and bet on Trump, you would receive $1 for every 58 cents you wagered if he won the election. If you bet on Harris on the same platform and on the same day, you would receive $1 for every 43 cent bet if she wins.

A striking poll in Iowa that showed Harris unexpectedly ahead of Trump sent shockwaves through American election observers this weekend. Betting market experts say that participants consider a number of factors when placing a bet, including the results of such surveys.

Questions have been raised about activity in betting markets in recent weeks. When it emerged that a man had bet more than $30 million on a Trump win on Polymarket, both he and the platform stressed that it was not an attempt to manipulate the market.

“My intention is just to make money,” the man, who called himself Théo, told the Wall Street Journal, claiming he had “absolutely no political agenda.”