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Trump's tariff-heavy economic fraud will only increase inflation

Trump's tariff-heavy economic fraud will only increase inflation


It probably doesn't help Trump that his economic plan involves him saying his favorite word is “tariffs,” repeating the phrase “drill, baby, drill,” and promising that he'll magically fix everything.

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This may come as a shock to some, but Donald Trump is no economic genius. He is an avid fabulist who has somehow described himself as a master of economics despite leaving a long trail of bankruptcies and corporate collapses behind him.

But thanks to inflation and Trump's relentless lie that he oversaw the “greatest economy in the history of the world” during his time as president, voters generally favored him on economic issues in the early months of the 2024 presidential campaign.

No longer.

An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll released Monday found Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris virtually tied with Trump on who would manage the economy better, in line with other polls. In the survey, she has a 5 percentage point lead over him on “Housing Costs” and a 2 percentage point lead on “Jobs and Unemployment.” Trump leads Harris by two points on “cost of food and gas.”

What has changed?

Harris' “opportunity economics” resonates with voters

First, people had time to look at Harris' plan for the economy, which includes expanding the child tax credit and earned income tax credit, increasing small business tax deductions, helping qualified first-time home buyers with an average of $25,000 in assistance, etc Increase in corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.

Harris' campaign portrays the plan as a way to build an “opportunity economy.”

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Their campaign was supported by mostly positive reviews from people who actually know economics.

The bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget reported Monday that Social Security's trust funds would be insolvent under another Trump presidency in just six years: “We find that President Trump's campaign proposals would dramatically worsen Social Security's finances.”

Poll: 70% of economists say Trump plan will increase inflation

Recently, the Financial Times and the Clark Center for Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business surveyed several dozen economists from top universities. When asked which candidate's plan would increase inflation, 70% of economists said Trump's plan would increase prices, while just 3% said Harris would increase prices.

Goldman Sachs released a report in September that estimated job growth under Harris' plan would be 30,000 jobs per month higher than if Trump won and Republicans had full control of Congress.

On October 14, the notoriously illiberal Wall Street Journal reported on a quarterly poll by the news organization: “Most economists believe inflation, interest rates and deficits would be higher under the policies former President Donald Trump would pursue in a second administration. “ than under Vice President Kamala Harris’ proposals.”

The Journal found that the majority of economists surveyed who “say Trump's policies are more likely to lead to inflation, deficits and interest rates” have increased since July.

All Trump does is complain about tariffs and make absurd promises

So the move toward Harris as a solid overseer of the U.S. economy isn't just based on sentiment.

And it probably doesn't help Trump that he talks about his economic plan at rallies and interviews, saying his favorite word is “tariffs,” repeating the phrase “drill, baby, drill,” and promising that he'll magically make everything perfect becomes.

When Trump was president, the economy wasn't “the best”

He relies heavily on his incorrect assessment of the economy as president. As the AP reported in May, the economic data reveals “a far more complicated reality during Trump's time in the White House.” His tax cuts never delivered the promised growth. Its budget deficits skyrocketed and then remained relatively high under (the Biden administration). His tariffs and trade deals never brought back all the factory jobs that were lost.”

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In fact, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Trump created 6.7 million jobs as president – not counting the massive number of jobs lost during the COVID-19 pandemic. President Joe Biden created 15 million jobs during his time in office.

By the end of Trump's presidency, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services had increased by 36.3% compared to 2016. And the federal debt rose from $14.4 trillion to $21.6 trillion.

Conclusion: It was far from the “largest economy” in history.

The Biden-Harris economy is doing well, giving the vice president a tailwind

But Trump believes voters aren't smart enough to recognize a fraudster.

I suspect that voters sense nonsense and that they see unmistakably strong economic indicators and are encouraged by them. Last month, U.S. companies exceeded expectations and added a quarter of a million jobs.

The New York Times wrote of September employment data: “The labor market is historically strong in many respects.” People in their prime, ages 25 to 54, are employed at levels previously seen only in the early 2000s . Average hourly wages are strong – and rising – even when adjusted for inflation. Women of the highest working age participate in the labor market at the highest level.”

And the stock market has repeatedly reached record highs.

Maybe voters are starting to notice Trump's economic fraud

Trump's strange plan to impose outlandish tariffs will shatter the economy and pass the costs on to consumers.

Harris, on the other hand, has an economy with tailwinds and a plan that has traction. She talks to voters and promotes concrete ideas supported by a wide range of economists.

All Trump does, as always, is sell himself.

Maybe voters will start to see him for what he is: a cheap con and a damn risky investment.

Follow USA TODAY columnist Rex Huppke on X, formerly Twitter, @RexHuppke and Facebook facebook.com/RexIsAJerk

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