UFC real or not – title stakes in Edmonton? Topuria named Fighter of the Year?

Don't look now, but the 2024 UFC calendar is almost ready.

November brings multiple Fight Night cards, a pay-per-view event in UFC 308, and some new rules coming into effect. In December, fight fans will get an additional fight night and pay-per-view (UFC 309) until the holidays come and the calendar resets to 2025.

Big questions still lurk for some of the sport's top stars. Can former champions Brandon Moreno and Rose Namajunas get back into the title picture? Has Ilia Topuria secured the men's Fighter of the Year award? Will lifting the 12-to-6 elbow ban make a difference in the UFC?

Andreas Hale, Brett Okamoto and Jeff Wagenheim clarify these questions, starting with the main event in Edmonton.

The men's flyweight division needs a tetralogy between Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja

Okamoto: Not real at all. Moreno is the closest thing to a star in the division, but he is 0-3 against Pantoja and his record is the lowest it has been in years due to back-to-back losses and an extended layoff. He's only 30 and has the skill and charisma to get us excited about this fight again, but not anytime soon.

Wagenheim: I would choose “surreal”. Wouldn't it be wild if Moreno was booked for a fourth fight with Pantoja, considering he's 0-3 against the champion? If he loses this one, Moreno could face Deiveson Figueiredo for the fourth time. No doubt Moreno would prefer a third championship, but if that's not possible he could settle for being a novelty: the only fighter with two tetralogies.

Hale: Not real. As it stands right now, Pantoja is welcoming Kai Asakura to the UFC in December, Kai Kara-France appears to be next in line, Brandon Royval has just jumped into the title picture, and Moreno has his hands full with Amir Albazi. A lot has to happen for us to feel like the divide needs a fourth fight between Pantoja and Moreno. If it has to happen because Moreno forces his way in, that's fine. But I don't think anyone is begging for this fight right now.

The winner of Erin Blanchfield vs. Namajunas would be favored over Valentina Shevchenko

Hale: Not real. Fiorot defeated Namajunas and Blanchfield with unanimous decision victories, with her striking being superior. Since hitting is Shevchenko's main calling card, it would be difficult to see Namajunas or Blanchfield as favorites in the title fight against her. Alexa Grasso had the perfect combination of striking and grappling to take the title from Shevchenko and earn her a draw in the rematch, but oddsmakers didn't see her as the overwhelming favorite in those bouts. After what Shevchenko did to Grasso in the third fight, it's hard to imagine anyone wanting to beat her.

Okamoto: Not real. If Blanchfield were to go out there and thoroughly dominate Namajunas, the betting line could be very tight. But Shevchenko just showed again that her grappling is strong. Namajunas is one of the best of all time, but at 75 kilograms she is still considered undersized and I would imagine she would be a big underdog against Shevchenko.

Wagenheim: Not real – unless… The assumption is that Saturday's winner would step in for Shevchenko next, which I doubt. But if that's the case, I don't think either Blanchfield or Namajunas can handle the champion. However, the clock is ticking and Shevchenko will turn 37 in March. If the 25-year-old Blanchfield is given a little more time to hone the standup game that Manon Fiorot exploited in March, she could fill the void. But only if she and Father Time team up against Shevchenko.

If no grappling was allowed, Derrick Lewis would win the heavyweight title

Wagenheim: Not real or even reality-based. The sport is called mixed Martial arts, so what are we doing here? Sure, Lewis would fare better if wrestling and jiu-jitsu were put on hold and the big guy was tasked with just throwing his knuckle fists. But if we want to give Lewis his best chance at supremacy, we should abolish all fighting disciplines and make the heavyweight bout a battle of the minds. Without pants, Lewis would be the GOAT.

Hale: Not real. Lewis is the UFC's knockout king, but if grappling wasn't allowed he would still have been stopped by Gane, Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich. Of course, a ban on grappling would give Lewis a better chance of becoming champion, but the rules would certainly favor Gane over almost every other heavyweight except Aspinall. Lewis would have better chances, but there are better strikers in the land of giants.

Okamoto: UUnfortunately no for “The Black Beast”. It's fun to think about, but I still don't think he would win a championship. Tom Aspinall would be the king (he has already won many fights without arguments). Ciryl Gane, who Lewis has already lost to, would be a nightmare. Even without arguments, Lewis would still be considered a fan favorite, which is totally fine. He had a very entertaining and lucrative career.

Ilia Topuria is the leading candidate for Men's Fighter of the Year

Hale: Really. While we all loved Pereira's remarkable run in 2024, none of his three wins came against opponents who had been on the winning list for some time. Topuria taking out Volkanovski was incredibly impressive, but being the first man in his vaunted career to knock out Holloway takes him into a different stratosphere. Unlike Volkanovski, who had been knocked out by Islam Makhachev just one fight earlier, Holloway suffered a stunning knockout against violent slugger Justin Gaethje in a heavier weight class. And Topuria was still in position to dispatch the future Hall of Famer. The race is over. Topuria is the man.

Okamoto: Not real. For me he is number 1. Pereira has been incredible and I can't imagine his ability to overcome the struggles he has while dealing with injuries, travel, last minute layoffs, etc. At the beginning of the year, I didn't think there was a chance he wouldn't be an easy choice. But Topuria, who takes out the two best featherweights of all time in his own way, trumps Pereira's activity. But although I believe it should be Topuria, my gut feeling tells me that the majority will rule with Pereira.

Wagenheim: Really. Please don't tell Pereira I said this about him, but by my calculation, his three knockout wins in 2024 don't add up to a greater overall impact than Topurias' two. Pereira defeated a solid trio – Khalil Rountree Jr. and two former champions, JiYí Procházka and Jamahal Hill – but Topuria defeated two all-time greats, Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. The strength of the schedule is important.

No middleweight would be favored against Khamzat Chimaev

Wagenheim: Really. It's hard to imagine that champion Dricus Du Plessis, as well as former champions Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland, would all be underdogs against a fighter who had just one top-10 win in the division, but Chimaev's quick victory over Robert last Whittaker witnessed this weekend I don't see anyone stopping him.

Hale: Really. After Chimaev shattered Whittaker's jaw without taking a single punch, “Borz” has catapulted himself into a league of his own. Fighters have bad nights at the office but there was nothing Whittaker could do to prevent what happened in Abu Dhabi. It was a chilling reminder of why Chimaev was being tipped as a future world champion when he took the stage in 2020. Du Plessis is the king of the mountain and always seems to find a way to win, but it's hard to believe anyone would be convinced he could beat Chimaev. As for the rest of the division? No.

Okamoto: Really. That's a good question that definitely got me thinking. I would think Chimaev is someone who makes oddsmakers nervous. He looked unbeatable at times, but also struggled with serious medical problems and noticeably slowed down in three-round bouts. What happens if he makes it to the fifth round? But yeah, with the trump card he has in this world class wrestling, I think it's impossible not to prefer him over anyone in this division.

Allowing the 12-to-6 elbow will be the most impactful new rule in the UFC

Okamoto: Not real. I wouldn't be surprised if fans didn't even notice the change. The biggest change for referees is the relief of never again having to determine in real time whether an elbow that was just thrown was slightly angled. It eliminates any chance of a false DQ, but does it provide a truly significant attack opportunity? I tend to say “no.”

Wagenheim: Not real. Whenever the 12 to 6 rule comes up, you're guaranteed to hear about Jon Jones being disqualified. It's only been 15 years since that Matt Hamill fight and we're still talking about it. Fifteen years! Why does it keep coming back? Because even for long-time MMA followers, it's the only time we can remember a fight that was affected by the rule. In contrast, the new rule narrowing the standard for what counts as a knocked down opponent is groundbreaking. It's a climax – and a concussion – waiting to happen.

Hale: Not real, unless your name is Jon Jones. The most influential rule is to allow knee strikes and kicks to a prone opponent. And it's not even close. Fighters have mischievously gotten away with being “held down” simply by placing a hand on the canvas. This prevented many fighters from getting kicked in the face. Until now. Once fighters' muscle memory wears off and their brain calculates the new rules, you'll see several knockouts at peak moments where a bent-over fighter thinks he or she is safe by putting his hand on the mat, only to have that Turning off the lights is a brutal knee or a kick in the face.