US stock market forecasts point to a likely victory for Trump in the most intense battle against Harris

While the final election polls have been released, in-person voting is still underway in the historic US election. It's a tense time and there isn't much new data to analyze on the potential winner of the US presidential election.

Meanwhile, investors continue to place and modify their bets. From prediction markets to bonds, they have more options than ever to voice their opinions on the likely outcome of the close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Despite the fact that Trump's apparent lead over Harris has shrunk in recent days, they still have the bulk of their money invested in the former president.

Find out what PredictIt, Kalshi and Polymarket predicted

Election betting markets are the best place to find out what the public thinks. PredictIt, Kalshi and Polymarket are the three that are attracting the most attention.

Trump has about a 60% chance of winning the election in the United States as of Monday afternoon, according to Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based website that claims to be the largest prediction market in the world. This indicates a decline from 67% the previous week, after some later polls were more positive for Harris, such as the unexpected Selzer poll in Iowa. However, Polymarket has many critics, some of whom claim that prices could be easily influenced.

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At PredictIt, the oldest of the three major online betting markets, which was founded exactly ten years ago, Harris is ahead by a narrow margin. However, there are also strict limits on multiple bettors and the size of their bets, which inherently makes it the most restricted platform.

Regulated exchange Kalshi now shows Trump has a 56% chance of winning, down from 65% last week. Kalshi briefly suggested that Harris was the front-runner according to the Selzer poll.

It might be easy to dismiss these various platforms as pointless betting platforms run by young men who spend a large portion of their waking hours online. However, their pricing was remarkably similar to “real money” in larger established markets.

To assess the position of stock investors in the election, experts at the investment firm Piper Sandler created two different stock portfolios, the fate of which may fluctuate depending on the outcome of the presidential election.

HT in the USA: Special coverage of the American elections by Prashant Jha

A look at Trump and Harris' portfolios

Her Trump portfolio includes short positions in companies like Apple, which would suffer from a trade war with China, as well as the oil and weapons industries. While they have bet against banking institutions and pharmaceutical companies that would face stricter regulations under the Democrats, their Harris portfolio is heavily tilted toward electric vehicle and renewable energy makers.