What are the encounters in the United States? Possible surprises on 19 cards | USA Electronics

The elections in the United States are extremely unreasonable. The seventh forecast, updated in the coming weeks, was confirmed with an accurate estimate: 51% of Victoria's vote for Donald Trump and 49% for Kamala Harris. The uncertainty is total. When elections were held 100 times, Trump won 51 and Harris won 49, practically the most.

Paradójicamente, this does not mean that the result would ultimately lead to disappointment. On the contrary, there are many different results, which may be due to the margin of error of the probes determined by the media of two puntos when voting at the national level. We continue to explore these scenarios on 20 maps.

Come? He ran 40,000 simulations of Nate Silver's prediction model to determine the probability of each outcome. Hey permutations, in the function that the states have left Harris and Trump, but we have shifted to the seventh areas. A decisive man, Harris had made a choice as Trump.

The result of this analysis are his scenarios: 1) Trump went out with one of his reds, he was represented in the seventh territories (which happened with a probability of 35%); 2) Trump ganando con cinco territorios (10% likely); 3) Trump just decided to fight against the current state of affairs (7%); 4) a Victoria de Harris at least (10%); a Victoria de Harris with a key from Holguria and the Cinco Territories (10%); and most recently 7) an old Democrat who called in Harris to win the majority of Bisagra areas (26%).

Ultimately, there was 0.1% opinion that Harris and Trump received 269 electoral votes, with no more than 270 presidential votes. But we have the most likely scenarios on the map.

The summary of the situation is clear: the outcome of this month's elections is enormous. Harris and Trump are very similar in their choices. All the information we received – encuestas, prediction markets and pronosticadores – will be summarized in a week. However, it doesn't matter that the result of the elections is still valid. Therefore, it is easiest for a candidate to take the presidency in Holgura, in the fifth year they are in the second season… Except we are not sure whether we are Harris or Trump.