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What does North Korea gain from sending its soldiers to war against Russia?

What does North Korea gain from sending its soldiers to war against Russia?

It is clear how Russia will benefit from the influx of about 10,000 North Korean troops to support its war in Ukraine. What is less obvious is what Kim Jong Un could gain from this.

Pyongyang's seemingly imminent entry into Moscow's war is a turning point that further complicates the international web of interests in a conflict that is approaching its thousandth day. For many observers, there is a risk of an escalation of the conflict as rising tensions in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region are linked.

Kim has spent months issuing increasing threats against his southern neighbors and working to improve his nuclear arsenal, while Russian President Vladimir Putin engaged in his own saber-rattling with the West as his military lost dozens of men to make gains on the battlefield achieve. Now the two are intensifying their partnership and thus alarming the USA and its allies.

“North Korea could gain combat experience with drones and real combat experience in a 21st century war,” Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, told NBC News. “But that is secondary to the strategic capabilities they could get from Russia – and I think the concern on the South Korean side is precisely because of that.”

The Pentagon confirmed Monday that around 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to Russia for training and are expected to enter the fight against Ukraine “in the next few weeks.” Some of those units have already headed west toward Ukraine and could join Kremlin forces fighting to push Ukrainian forces out of Russia's Kursk region, the Pentagon said.

It's not hard to understand why Moscow seems happy to have drawn international ire with this extraordinary invitation.

Ukrainian troops penetrated Russian defenses in August and seized part of Russian territory in the Kursk region – a move that many see as a blow to Putin's reputation. Russia managed to recapture some of this territory, but failed to expel the Ukrainian invaders and appeared reluctant to withdraw troops from the war's Eastern Front for this purpose.

North Korean troops are expected to help.

South Korea's foreign and defense ministers will travel to Washington for meetings with their counterparts on Wednesday and Thursday following a briefing by NATO leaders on Monday.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in a statement following the briefing that the alliance could now confirm that North Korean troops were in Russia and stationed in the Kursk region.

When NBC's Keir Simmons was asked to comment directly on these developments in Kazan last week, Putin stood by his statement:

“It is not Russia’s actions that led to escalation in Ukraine,” Putin said, blaming Washington and its NATO allies for arming and supporting Ukraine. As for the presence of North Korean troops in Russia, he did not deny the reports, instead pointing to a mutual defense pact signed in Pyongyang in June.

But what exactly does Pyongyang get out of it?

Western and South Korean officials have previously suggested that North Korea was paid in a variety of ways, including resources, food and, in some cases, cash. But relations between Russia and North Korea have visibly deepened over the course of the war in Ukraine.

A visit by Kim to Russia's Vostochny cosmodrome last summer, which laid the groundwork for the delivery of North Korean munitions, sparked speculation that Putin was giving away valuable Russian knowledge in space technologies that have major overlap with those used in a successful one Nuclear program.

“I think the question of whether this is actually happening or not is the key,” Gabuev said.

Kim Jong Un shakes hands with Vladimir Putin.
Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia last year. Mikhail Metzel/AFP-Getty Images

According to the Yonhap news agency, South Korea's spy agency said on Tuesday that North Korea was preparing to repeat a failed attempt to launch a spy satellite with the help of Russia. Their last attempt came on May 27, when the rocket carrying the satellite into orbit exploded during launch.

But sending troops is a more significant North Korean commitment than a material one. And this is largely happening out of desperation on both sides of the relationship, analysts told NBC News.

Moscow desperately needs friends, especially those who will join the war effort. North Korea, for its part, needs a partner to protect it from the United Nations Security Council as it pursues its nuclear ambitions.

“North Korea is trying to get as much benefit as possible from this relationship,” said Edward Howell, North Korea expert at the Chatham House think tank. “And it now has the full, unwavering support of Russia in the UN Security Council, which is extremely beneficial for North Korea because it knows it can test missiles and provoke South Korea.”

“It can even conduct a nuclear test and get away with it with impunity because sanctions simply won’t be imposed due to Russia’s veto power,” he said.

There are other benefits for Kim's regime.

Although North Korea has the fourth largest standing army in the world – around 1.2 million soldiers – it has been a long time since that army has been involved in a war. The war's vast front lines could become a kind of laboratory for modern warfare, giving Kim's troops – and her generals – a chance to learn.

This could explain why South Korea took the lead in raising the alarm. Seoul has even gone so far as to say it may consider sending lethal military aid to Ukraine. However, Gabuev said South Korea's biggest concern lies primarily in strategic issues – such as its nuclear program.

“If thousands of North Korean soldiers learn to survive on a battlefield full of drones,” Gabuev said, “that's less of a problem than if North Korea has quieter, nuclear-capable submarines.” And I think that explains South Korea's strong reaction. “

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