What early voting dates signal this year's election?

Lisa Desjardins:

There is a gender gap in this early voting. Right now we see far more women voting than men, by 10 points.

That's something the Harris campaign likes. We see in polls, including our October poll, that Harris really dominates among women. They believe that the more women vote, the higher the proportion, the better it is for them.

Now I want to note that this is the same proportion we saw in 2020 in this election. Joe Biden, of course, won this election in part because of the gender gap. Well, that's just early voting. We don't know whether these women are necessarily Democrats or Republicans.

And I will say that there is reason to believe that more conservative women will vote this year. And I'll at least show you why early on. If you look at the data for rural and urban voters in 2020, the proportion of early voters was about the same.

But look this year. Look what we have, a gap, rural voters make up a much larger share of early voters than they did in 2020. And I can testify from Georgia, Virginia, that this definitely has to do with Trump and his campaign pushing for it , to try and get their red voters out, especially in rural areas.

They definitely show up. The question now is: Are these new voters or are they voters who would have voted anyway who are simply doing it earlier?