What is Russia doing with North Korean troops?

Thousands of North Korean troops are currently in Russia, preparing to support Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's war of conquest in Ukraine. The newly arrived soldiers are reportedly from the Special Operations Force – the most capable part of the North Korean army – and could be deployed to Russia's Kursk region to retake territory that Ukraine captured in an offensive last summer. But Western military observers can only guess how well equipped they will be or how well trained they will be compared to the battle-hardened Ukrainian forces.

What we do know is this: Putin saw the war he started as an opportunity to improve Russia's position, and he took advantage of it, apparently without regard to what the West might think.

Relying on the United States to do nothing seems to have been a good choice. On Wednesday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed what Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence had been saying for some time: that Kim Jong Un's hermit state had joined forces with Russia. When reporters asked him what role the North Koreans might play, Austin replied: “If they are comrades in arms – (if) they intend to participate in this war on behalf of Russia – that is a very, very serious problem.” He tries to sound harsh, but his comment means nothing.

Since the current war began in February 2022, the Biden administration has repeatedly faltered. Should Ukraine be offered American high-tech weapons such as HIMARS missile equipment, Abrams tanks, ATACMS missiles, F-16 fighters and even JASSM long-range missiles? (In most of these cases, the U.S. gave in and provided the requested equipment, but Ukraine missed valuable opportunities to push back Russia's war machine.) Would the U.S. allow Ukraine to use Western weapons to attack Russian-occupied Crimea and Russia? To attack Russian-built Kerch? Bridge or will military means be used to attack Ukraine just across the border in Russia? Could Ukraine attack military targets deeper in Russia? The US is Ukraine's most important ally – but it has subjected Kiev to an endless process of delaying or withholding vital aid because the US fears what Putin might think about each move.

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I don't mean to sound flippant, but the dynamic reminds me of a classic Gary Larson cartoon that shows a split-screen man and woman lying awake at night in different houses. He thinks about what she thinks about him, whether he should call her, whether she even knows he exists. She just thinks, “You know, I think I really like vanilla.” The caption reads, “Same planet, different worlds.” Like the man in the cartoon, the United States is full of self-doubt and struggles endlessly with how Russia might feel . The Biden administration withheld weapons systems at precisely the moments when they would be most useful, allowing Russia to turn this war into a long-term conflict of attrition that need not have been.

Putin's thinking about warfare is not at all complex. He escalates regularly and quickly when he believes he can gain a strategic advantage. He has bombed Ukrainian hospitals and power facilities, planned sabotage attacks on military facilities in Europe, attacked Iran for large numbers of drones and missiles, and negotiated with North Korea for millions upon millions of shells – all to help him in his quest for military success.

A key factor in American indecision is the Biden administration's fear that if the West helps Ukraine too much, Putin will escalate and use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. But Putin has often shown that his nuclear threats are hollow. If he went through with it, he would isolate himself from his most important ally – China has repeatedly signaled its opposition to the use of nuclear weapons in the conflict – and would not necessarily give Russia a clear military advantage that would help Russia defeat the Ukrainian army .

However, he will use any other means to win the war. And the United States will apparently continue to overthink—and find excuses for doing nothing. A few weeks ago, Ukrainian and South Korean intelligence agencies began reporting that North Korean forces were engaging on Russia's side. American military and intelligence officials downplayed the significance of Pyongyang's involvement and initially suggested it The New York Times that the regime had sent engineers to build and operate North Korean military equipment in Russian hands. A video subsequently emerged that appeared to show North Korean troops in Russia receiving Russian military equipment. Earlier this week, the British government claimed that North Korean combat troops were on their way to Russia.

Even when the US government finally admitted what was happening, their words showed indecision. “What exactly they do remains to be seen,” Austin said.

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This reaction will not deter Putin, who understands that he is in a war, not negotiations. He appears to doubt the steadfastness of Ukrainian supporters – and he may be right, especially if US voters return Donald Trump, a Putin admirer, to the White House. The Russian dictator appears intent on bleeding Ukraine dry on the battlefield. To achieve this goal, the US estimates that he suffered more than 600,000 casualties among his own soldiers. The Russian military under his command has committed countless war crimes in search of advantage – against Ukrainians and even against its own troops. Finally, if Putin believes that deploying troops from North Korea, a global pariah, will give him an advantage, he will not hesitate to deploy them.

Unfortunately, Ukraine's most important partner is not thinking so clearly. After nearly three years of conflict, we still don't know whether the US wants Ukraine to win or is more concerned that Russia doesn't collapse. Just a few weeks ago, President Volodymyr Zelensky presented Washington with a carefully considered plan for victory that included using major American weapons to attack Russian targets, just as Russia regularly uses Iranian weapons to attack Ukrainian targets.

The Biden administration's response was to bide its time and turn the matter over to its successor. Their excuses are now self-fulfilling: the United States has had countless opportunities to intervene and provide immediate assistance to Ukraine, and in each case it has prevaricated and wasted time. At some point, Americans should realize that Putin doesn't wonder what the United States thinks of him; He tries tirelessly to win his war. The United States should respond to North Korea's involvement by doing what it always should have done: giving Ukraine the means to repel the Russian invasion.