What to watch in the final full week of the presidential campaign

NEW YORK (AP) — Uncertainty reigns as Democrats enter the final full week of the 2024 presidential campaign Kamala Harris and Republicans Donald Trump embroiled in a hotly contested presidential contest. What happens in the coming days will be crucial in deciding the winner.

This is what we're looking at this week:

Can Trump stick to the message (relatively speaking)?

Even before the week began, Trump's election campaign was in danger of being derailed by controversy. Instead, a rally was held late Sunday at New York's Madison Square Garden that was intended to serve as a final message overshadowed by racist insultsincluding a comedian who called Puerto Rico a “floating island of trash.”

And there are still eight days until then election dayHistory suggests that Trump is virtually guaranteed to say or do something controversial down the line. The only question is whether the breakthrough will succeed.

If there's one thing we know, it's that Trump can't do anything else. He has used authoritarian-style rhetoric in recent days to suggest that his Democratic opponents, whom he “ the enemy within“are more dangerous to the nation than the threat from Russia and China.”

Democrats will scour every Trump interview and public appearance for something similar to exploit. There are also several ongoing ones Criminal investigation against Trumpwho has already been convicted of 34 crimes, could reveal new information.

Still, Democrats are the first to admit that voters' opinions of Trump have become so hardened that it would take something truly amazing to change the course of the election.

However, there is a precedent for a stunning success last week. Remember, it was on October 28, 2016, when former FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress indicating that federal investigators had learned of new emails used to investigate the use of a Hillary Clinton's private email server is relevant.

Will Harris' final message stoke Democrats' concerns?

To say Democrats are so worried about Election Day would be an understatement. But over the weekend there was a conscious effort by Harris' senior team to exude optimism to curb the fear.

Harris' senior adviser, Jen O'Malley Dillon, predicted the victory on MSNBC on Sunday: “We're confident we're going to win this thing,” she said. “We are seeing extraordinary enthusiasm. This will be a close race and our campaign is exactly what we want to achieve.”

Harris will try to further ease Democrats' fears when she delivers her speech on Tuesday her “closing statement” at the Ellipse, the same location near the White House where Trump spoke on January 6, 2021, shortly before his supporters attacked the Capitol.

Harris is expected to focus her remarks on the danger Trump poses to US democracy. She has called her Republican rival “a fascist” in recent days. And she is joined by an unlikely ally: Trump's former chief of staff John Kelly, who also recently called Trump a fascist.

But she is also expected to address broader issues, encouraging voters to look behind them at the White House and imagine who will be sitting at the Resolute Desk at a moment of great consequence. Their goal is to make clear to undecided voters what is at stake in the Nov. 5 election — especially moderate Republicans who may be uncomfortable with Trump's divisive leadership and extreme rhetoric. And while Harris' team is betting that there are a significant number of moderates who can still be persuaded, progressive Democrats are worried She is not focusing enough on economic issues in the final days of the election campaign.

We learned that democratic fears can be a fact of life.

Where will they go?

Candidates' changing travel plans will tell us a lot about the battlegrounds that will matter most on Election Day.

Here's what we know for sure: Harris and Trump are competing aggressively in just seven swing states that will ultimately decide the election. In addition to Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, these are the three so-called “Blue Wall” states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

However, from a political perspective, not all seven are equal.

Harris spent Sunday in Pennsylvania, in what may be his biggest win of the election. Harris is scheduled to travel to Michigan next. And after Tuesday's closing arguments in Washington, she plans to visit North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on Wednesday alone. On Thursday she travels to Nevada and Arizona.

What do we know about Trump's schedule? He is tasked with hosting at least one rally every day next week: Monday in Georgia, Tuesday in Pennsylvania, Wednesday in Wisconsin, Thursday in Nevada, Friday again in Wisconsin and Saturday in Virginia.

But as a reminder, these timelines are subject to change depending on the insights of the campaigns on the ground.

Will the rise in early voting continue?

More than 41 million votes have already been cast in the nationwide election. Democrats generally have an advantage in early voting, but Republicans are, at least so far, participating significantly more than in the past.

The question: Will it last?

Of course, Trump has been encouraging his supporters for years to only vote in person on Election Day. The practice put the Republican Party at a significant disadvantage. In recent months he has largely reversed course as he and his party recognized the obvious advantage of collecting their votes as early as possible.

Early voter turnout was low due to Republican turnout Breaking records last week in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina.

But with Republicans more focused on “election integrity” than traditional voter turnout, it’s unclear whether Republicans’ early voting surge will continue. Democrats hope that won't be the case.

How hard will Trump work to undermine the election results?

History may one day decide that the most important thing Trump said in the final days of the 2024 election was what many voters barely notice anymore: his continued warnings that this election was rigged against him.

As Election Day approaches, Trump is increasingly warning his supporters that he will only lose on November 5 if his political opponents cheat. Such statements have no factual basis. There was no evidence of significant voter fraud in the 2020 election, which Trump lost, nor is there any evidence that Trump's opponents can or will rig that election against him.

Still, Trump's baseless warnings are making an already tense and violent election season even more tense. And there are real threats to foreign adversaries – particularly Russia, China and Iran – will interfere in the election.

At the same time it is The Republican National Committee invested Tens of millions of dollars have been poured into an operation to mobilize thousands of poll watchers, poll workers and lawyers to act as “election integrity” watchdogs. Democrats fear the effort could lead to harassment of poll workers and undermine confidence in voting.

Both parties are aggressive Preparation for long legal disputes no matter who wins.

Will the wars in the Middle East shift the focus?

US presidential elections are rarely dominated by foreign policy matters, but wars in the Middle East are escalating just as millions of voters prepare to cast their ballots.

It is still unclear how Iran will respond to Israel's response unusually public airstrikes Airstrikes across Iran took place on Friday, but Israel did not target any oil or nuclear sites, a sign that a much more serious escalation may have been avoided. Another indication that this conflict may not be spiraling out of control was that the Islamic Republic insisted that the attacks had caused only “limited damage” and that news stories from Iranian state media downplayed the attacks.

Whether the region continues to move toward all-out regional war or remains at already devastating and destabilizing levels of violence could also determine the extent to which the Middle East conflict shapes the U.S. election.

The issue has been particularly difficult for Harris to navigate as she simultaneously vows to support Israel and expresses compassion for the tens of thousands of Palestinians killed by Israel's response to the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023. The Democratic vice president continues to face intense pressure from her party's progressive base, which is highly critical of Israel.