When can Tua Tagovailoa return and what next for the Dolphins?

MIAMI – Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa played a full season in 2023 for the first time in his NFL career. He led the NFL in passing yards and led the league's No. 1 offense to an 11-win season and an AFC wild-card berth.

The Dolphins rewarded him this offseason with a four-year contract extension worth $212.1 million in hopes that he and the team would take another step forward in 2024.

But the 2024 season stuttered at the beginning. Tagovailoa suffered the third documented concussion of his NFL career in a loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. Days later, he was placed on injured reserve.

In the Dolphins' first game without him, they lost 24-3 to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. Backup quarterback Skylar Thompson was unimpressive, throwing for 107 yards before leaving the game midway through the third quarter with a rib injury. Tim Boyle, his backup, didn't fare much better, finishing the game completing 7 of 13 passes for 79 yards. The offense had 205 total yards, nearly 200 yards below its season average in 2023.

The Dolphins are three games behind in a 17-game season but are in an intense AFC conference. With Tagovailoa out for at least the next three games, Miami's offense faces an uncertain future.

With games against the Tennessee Titans, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Arizona Cardinals before a visit to the Bills on November 3, the Dolphins' early schedule is favorable. But the quarterback situation has the potential to hold back one of the most expensive wide receiver rooms in the NFL ($48.7 million) and limit this offense overall.

With Tagovailoa's future still uncertain, here's where he and the Dolphins stand.

Tagovailoa attended the Dolphins game in Seattle last weekend. How long will he be on the injured reserve list and what hurdles will he have to overcome to get back to playing?

NFL rules state that a player placed on injured reserve must miss at least the team's next four games – so Tagovailoa still has three games left. The Dolphins play the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots over the next two weeks before their Week 6 bye. The final game of this stretch is October 20th at the Indianapolis Colts.

McDaniel has repeatedly said there is no timetable for Tagovailoa's return. The Dolphins are focused on ensuring their franchise quarterback is healthy.

“The great thing about IR is that there are no schedules for a month,” McDaniel said last week. “I always say this, but I'm not sure people really understand it: If you set a schedule based on the information you have today, how much of what happens then fulfills the prophecy of that schedule ? And is that the right thing to do?” “Especially with competitors and such, sometimes you can do more harm than good.

“Worrying about anything when it comes to the schedule is very helpful for him as a human being to recover from an injury and that's the only motivating factor you have when you're dealing with players, their careers and their injuries.”

If Tagovailoa is cleared to return, what do the Dolphins say about his future this season and beyond?

Although they are focused on getting him back to full health, the Dolphins have not publicly indicated that Tagovailoa will not be their starting quarterback as long as his play warrants it.

What needs to change, however, is how he protects himself in the future.

Tagovailoa's most recent concussion occurred when he made contact with Bills defensive back Damar Hamlin after going for a first down. That's not what he was trained to do; Particularly after suffering two confirmed concussions in 2022, Tagovailoa said he would likely slide in October if he runs.

“My coaches told me, 'We never want you to (make contact),'” Tagovailoa said. “Of course I understand that, after the injury and what happened before with the concussion. But for me it's football. You go out there and for me, sometimes I see the first down and I want to do everything I can to go and get it.

McDaniel said before Miami's Week 3 game that he understands why a player might make contact during a run — but he doesn't tolerate that from his quarterbacks.

“I appreciate the competitive spirit and fighting for every yard, but I don't coach quarterbacks who try to rush defenders,” McDaniel said. “However, you're trying to play a competitive sport where people are trying to force you on, and sometimes the competition takes over. I'm not condemning it so much as trying to learn lessons from it and be able to say, 'Okay, fine, what can you do in the future?' I don't conform – I have the same philosophy. In this situation, it might be good to spot the yard line and run or slide into the gap.

What would the Dolphins owe Tagovailoa if he was medically unable to play and how does that affect the salary cap? How does this number change if he is acquitted but decides to retire?

Tagovailoa's extension includes $167.1 million in guaranteed money, $93.1 million of which was fully guaranteed at signing. If he is never medically cleared to play, he will be entitled to the entire $167.1 million. In this case, the Dolphins are insured for up to $49.3 million under Tagovailoa's contract – although it is unknown whether concussions are excluded from the Dolphins' insurance policy.

Two insurance industry sources who had no direct knowledge of Miami's policy told ESPN that based on their experience working with insurance carriers, they expected concussions to be excluded from Miami's policy coverage on Tagovailoa.

If Tagovailoa is medically cleared to play and forfeits, he will lose his right to his remaining guaranteed money. The most likely outcome in this scenario is that Tagovailoa and the Dolphins reach some sort of good-faith agreement — including that the team not seek to recoup any portion of Tagovailoa's $42 million signing bonus. An NFL consulting source with no direct knowledge of the Dolphins' plan suggested to ESPN that if Tagovailoa waited until after the season to retire, they might advise him to do so after June 1, giving them a cap of would bring in $8.4 million in 2025. The remaining $25.2 million would then count toward the 2026 salary cap.

The “likely outcome” if Tagovailoa were to retire, the source said, would be that the Dolphins would allow him to keep his contract bonus and possibly additional severance pay – although that's probably not a significant amount compared to his contract were.

Neither Tagovailoa nor any of his Dolphins teammates or coaches have indicated he plans to retire.

If he doesn't play anymore, where would that leave the Dolphins?

Tagovailoa's retirement would immediately disrupt the team's schedule as a Super Bowl contender. Miami is primed to win now with talented players like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane all under the team's control over the next few seasons. But the supporting cast probably won't matter without the right quarterback.

Thompson, Boyle and Tyler Huntley are the Dolphins' current quarterbacks, but if Tagovailoa doesn't return, Miami could turn to a veteran like Ryan Tannehill, trade him for a veteran like Jimmy Garoppolo, or trade him for a young quarterback in the hunt Bryce Young is in a new situation.

Thompson still has one year left on his rookie contract, but it's unlikely he would enter the 2025 season as Miami's starter in that scenario. If Tagovailoa doesn't play again this season, Miami could secure a high pick in the 2025 NFL Draft and use that selection on a quarterback. Colorado's Shedeur Sanders, Miami's Cam Ward and Georgia's Carson Beck are among the top QBs available in the 2025 draft.

In any case, the quarterback position would have to be addressed without Tagovailoa. Failure to do so could result in a reset of the once promising rebuild.

When Thompson comes back from his rib injury, will he start again?

This is the least experienced quarterbacks room the Dolphins have fielded since Tagovailoa's fifth overall pick in 2020. When the Dolphins signed Huntley from the Ravens' practice squad, McDaniel said the move was intended to add depth behind Thompson.

However, he left the door open for a competition. Especially after Thompson and the Dolphins' performance against Seattle in Week 3, Huntley could see the field soon. McDaniel described Thompson's rib injury as “painful” and the team should know the full extent on Monday.

“I do think it helps the dynamic of the room to give this team another guy with starting history,” McDaniel said last week after adding Huntley, “and add another guy who is a signal-caller that a team “I was happy to add what we were able to do in the quarterback room by adding Boyle, but I think (adding Huntley) is more directly to support Skylar, and then you always leave the competition play when she’s out on the field, but that was definitely a depth move.”

Miami could also turn to Boyle, who has starting experience. He has completed 102 of 157 passes for 853 yards and 4 touchdowns against 9 interceptions in five career starts for the Green Bay Packers and New York Jets. He orchestrated the Dolphins' two longest drives of the day to relieve Thompson on Sunday.

Tagovailoa could still return for the team's final 11 games of the regular season. Even if the Dolphins are 1-5 when he plays again, Miami could have a chance to advance to the AFC playoffs. However, with the season ending with games against the Packers, Jets, Texans, 49ers, Browns and Jets, it will be difficult for the Dolphins to reach the postseason for the third straight year.