Who is Independent Dan Osborn?

Topline

A New York Times/Siena College poll suggests the future of the Senate majority could be decided in part by a race in Nebraska — a race that is nearly undecided because of the unexpected popularity of an independent candidate named Dan Osborn.

Important facts

Important background

Democrats have controlled the Senate since winning key elections in Georgia that gave them a slim majority in 2021. Republicans took back the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections and Democrats expanded their slim Senate majority to 51-49. Democrats are facing a tough battle to maintain control of the Senate as they must defend seats this year in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona, as well as the heavily Republican states of Montana, West Virginia and Ohio. However, Osborn's sudden popularity poses an unexpected obstacle to the Republicans' chances. His election would replace a Republican seat with an independent who could play a role in any decision and have the potential to vote for or against any coalition formed Osborn has stated that he will not meet with either party. According to a FiveThirtyEight analysis, Republicans have an 88% chance of winning control of the Senate, while their chances of retaining control of the House are significantly lower at 53%.

Who is Dan Osborn?

Osborn's claim to fame stems from a months-long strike by more than 1,000 workers from his local union at a Kellogg grain plant amid a labor dispute. Osborn was president of the Omaha-based union and led the 2021 strike. Today, he works on machinery and piping systems as a member of a steamfitters union. He has also served in the Nebraska Army National Guard and the US Navy. As an independent, Osborn's platform touches both sides of the partisan spectrum. In his election campaign, which is often described as populist, he advocates tax cuts for small businesses and the middle class. His website states that he “does not support extreme national measures to ban abortion” and that he describes himself as a Second Amendment supporter and is interested in limiting what he calls government overreach. He also states that he wants to prevent illegal immigration and strengthen border security, one of former President Donald Trump's most prominent and supported points. In interviews, he regularly expresses complaints about the two-party system. “I have to move in the middle because that's what … the two-party loophole means,” Osborn told ABC News in October. He declined to say whether he will vote for Vice President Kamala Harris or Trump in the upcoming election, The Wall Street Journal reports have compared Osborn to both a Democrat.

Who is Senator Deb Fischer?

Fischer became the first senator elected to a full term in Nebraska in 2012, beating her Democratic challenger by more than 15 points. She won re-election in 2018 with a victory by more than 18 points. She has voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act and supported bills to impose strict abortion bans. She is also a rancher and has served in the Nebraska Legislature. While she called for Trump to step down as the Republican presidential candidate in 2016, she later voted for his acquittal in both impeachment trials and supported Trump's campaigns. Trump endorsed Fischer on September 9, saying she had “done a fantastic job” in a post on Truth Social. In the same post, Trump called Osborn a “radical left” candidate and a “Bernie Sanders Democrat.”

How close is the race according to other polls?

FiveThirtyEight shows Fischer (45.5%) leading Osborn (44.5%) by one point, making it one of the closest Senate races. In September, Cook Political Report reiterated its outlook for the Senate race, saying Nebraska could “lean Republican” rather than “likely” be Republican.