Who will win the election in Pennsylvania? Harris, Trump results update

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris Both hope to win Pennsylvania and secure the state's 19 electoral votes.

Pennsylvania is considered the state that will win the presidential election. Before November 5, the two nominees were considered “equal” in Pennsylvania, with FiveThirtyEight giving former President Donald Trump a slight lead of 0.2 percent as of October 29. In 2016, Trump won the Keystone State by 0.8 percent. but he lost it to President Joe Biden by 1.2 percent in 2020.

Polls in Pennsylvania close at 8:00 p.m. local time. Counties should begin releasing initial numbers soon, but it could be hours or even days before final results are available. Follow this article to get the latest updates.

Which presidential candidate did Pennsylvania voters choose in 2016 and 2020?

Before the 2016 presidential election, polls showed results within the margin of error, but many experts said former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had an advantage over former President Donald Trump. That year also saw the Democratic National Convention take place in Philadelphia.

Trump ended up with 2,970,733 votes, or 48.6 percent of the vote, in Pennsylvania, compared to Clinton's 2,926,441 votes, or 47.9 percent. Clinton was ahead in 11 of the 67 counties, which primarily included the metropolitan areas around Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Harrisburg.

Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes, marking the narrowest margin in a presidential election since 1860 between William Henry Harrison and Martin Van Buren. He was the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Trump ultimately won the “Blue Wall” of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016.

Pennsylvania election officials certified the state's results for the 2020 election on Nov. 24, providing 20 electoral votes to President Joe Biden.

The Keystone State, Biden's birth state, saw record voter turnout. Biden received 3,458,229 votes in Pennsylvania, an increase for the Democratic Party of 531,788 votes in 2016. The majority of his gains compared to Clinton's 2016 results came in areas around Philadelphia, including Lehigh, Northampton, Bucks, Montgomery, Delaware and Chester, Lancaster and York Counties.

However, Trump also saw his biggest gains in Montgomery, Bucks, Lancaster, York and Allegheny counties. The most votes statewide were cast in Philadelphia and Alleghany counties, where Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are located. Outside the two major cities, Montgomery County counted 504,971 voters.

Areas surrounding Pittsburgh, such as Butler, Westmoreland, Washington and Beaver counties, also saw smaller gains for Biden. Erie County also gave Biden 10,174 additional votes compared to Clinton's 2016 candidacy.

Former President Donald Trump received 3,377,674 votes, which also represents an increase of 406,941 for the Republican Party compared to 2016.

However, Republicans remained optimistic about winning back Pennsylvania since 2020 based on voter registration numbers. Although there are still more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state, the number has declined significantly over the past four years. As of the 2024 election, there are 3,991,381 Democrats, 3,710,290 Republicans and 1,460,307 unaffiliated members and third-party registrants, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State's Oct. 28 release. This is an increase of 0.78 percent compared to the 2020 election, and the GOP gained 167,220 voters over the four years.

In 2020, there were 685,818 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania. In 2024, this margin is now 281,091.

In the 2016 and 2020 elections, Pennsylvania had 20 electoral votes. The U.S. Census Bureau's 2020 population counts rebalance power in the Electoral College and House of Representatives. In a hypothetical repeat of the 2020 presidential election with the new electoral map, Biden would still have won, but his margin would have been smaller.

According to the polls, who won in Pennsylvania?

Pennsylvania is also often viewed as a model state. According to pollster Nate Silver's calculations, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has a better than 90 percent chance of winning the election. Polls in recent weeks showed a neck-and-neck race between the two candidates, with their leads largely within the polls' margin of error.

An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted between October 26 and 27 shows Trump leading Harris by one percentage point, 48 percent to 47 percent. The poll surveyed 800 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.46 percent.

Another recent American Greatness poll conducted by North Star Opinion Research shows both candidates in a dead heat at 47 percent each. The poll, conducted between Oct. 22 and Oct. 26, surveyed 600 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. That poll found the sample included more Democrats than Republicans and said the results reflected a major shift toward early voting for Republicans.

A poll conducted by Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania shows Trump at 49 percent, Harris at 48 percent. This poll was conducted between October 21 and 22 among a sample of 860 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.

FiveThirtyEight's overall poll showed the two candidates “tied” in Pennsylvania as of Oct. 29. Trump was expected to receive 47.9 percent of the vote and Harris 47.7 percent.

The economy, abortion and immigration are among the biggest issues in Pennsylvania

A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in August found the economy is the No. 1 issue in Pennsylvania, with more than one in five voters in each state considering it their top voting issue.

Abortion is considered the second or third most important issue in all seven contested states.

Voters in the seven battleground states say immigration is also among their top three issues, with the highest percentage (16 percent) in Pennsylvania.

Robert Speel, associate professor of political science at Penn State Behrend, said NewsweekHowever, this election is ultimately about values. “In Pennsylvania and many other states, suburban areas are trending blue and rural areas are trending red because most Americans don't base their voting decisions on economics, even if they say they do in polls,” he said.

“Instead, most voters choose a party based on the values ​​that party leaders represent and whether those values ​​are more aligned with voters’ social and cultural attitudes,” Speel said.

“On many non-economic issues, the Democrats are far more attractive to college-educated voters in the suburbs than the Republicans, and to rural voters the Republicans are far more attractive than the Democrats. These include topics such as weapons, religious views, social tolerance, abortion, and foreign relations.

Almost twice as many Democrats as Republicans voted early in Pennsylvania. Registered Democrats had cast 849,849 ballots a week before Election Day, compared to 468,067 Republicans, according to the state's election data.

Pennsylvania received the most advertising spending and attention in both presidential campaigns.

Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz, ran a stronger campaign in Pennsylvania than Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance. The two campaigns made a total of 53 stops in Pennsylvania since Trump and Vance accepted their nominations at the Republican National Convention. Harris and Vance last gathered in the Keystone State on Oct. 30.

Both held two rallies in Erie. The Harris-Walz campaign made 13 stops in and around Pittsburgh and western Pennsylvania, one more than for Trump and Vance.

Trump and Vance traveled to northeastern Pennsylvania a total of three times, compared to Harris' single visit to Wilkes-Barre. The Harris-Walz campaign made 13 stops in and around Philadelphia and Harrisburg, two more than Trump and Vance.

Harris had over 475 paid employees in Pennsylvania. According to TIME, over 110,000 people have volunteered for her campaign in the state since July.