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Who will win the Harris-Trump presidential race? Follow the latest polls

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Who will win the Harris-Trump presidential race? Follow the latest polls

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The presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is almost over. Just one day until the 2024 general election. Here's what polls, odds and a historian have said over the last 10 weeks and how they continue to change as we head into Election Day tomorrow, Tuesday, November 5th .

Harris or Trump? Who will win in the polls and be favored by the odds?

  • ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls at 47.9%, ahead of Trump at 47% – by 0.7%, a narrower lead again this week. This compares to Harris, who was over 48.1% to Trump's 46.7% last week, compared to 48.2% to Trump's 46.4% two weeks ago, compared to 48.5% to Trump's 46.1 % three weeks ago, compared to 48.5% over Trump 45.9% four weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 45.8% five weeks ago compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.6 % six weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.3% seven weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump 44.4% eight weeks ago nine weeks ago, compared to Harris, who was nine weeks ago was 47.1% over Trump at 43.9%, or compared to Harris who was 47.0% over Trump at 43.7% ten weeks ago.
  • 270towin shows Harris leading the national polls by 1%, compared to 0.7% over Trump last week, compared to 1.8% over Trump two weeks ago, compared to 2.5% over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.8% over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris 3.7% over Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% six weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump seven weeks ago weeks, compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump eight weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump compared to nine weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump 10 weeks ago.
  • realclearpolling shows that the betting odds favor Trump with a spread of +0.1 over Harris for the second week in a row. This was a reversal from two weeks ago, when Harris was favored by a spread of +0.9 over Trump, compared to +1.4 over Trump three weeks ago, compared to +2 four weeks ago, which were tied, compared to Harris, who was favored with a spread of +1.8 over Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris favorability of +2.3 over Trump six weeks ago, compared to Harris +2 over Trump seven weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.1 over Trump eight weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 over Trump nine weeks ago and compared to Harris +1.7 over Trump ten weeks ago.
  • Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, puts the betting audience's odds in favor of Trump 56.9% versus Harris 43% – a much narrower spread than last week's odds of Trump 66.5% versus Harris 33.4%, compared to Trump preferred over Harris by 23% points two weeks ago, compared to Trump preferred over Harris by 14.3% three weeks ago, compared to Trump preferred over Harris by 7.5% four weeks ago, compared to Harris preferred over Trump was preferred by 2% five weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 3% six weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 2% seven weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump by 1% eight weeks ago, or compared to Trump over Harris with 4% nine weeks ago or compared to Harris with a 1% point lead over Trump 10 weeks ago.

Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers apply as of Monday, November 4, 2024.

Allan Lichtman reveals the 2024 presidential election

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished history professor at American University and has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election against former President Donald Trump. He says he uses 13 “keys” to make his selection, ranging from economic indicators to candidates’ charisma.

Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election in the last half century, except for the 2000 election, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

How accurate were polls or ratings in past elections?

According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

Survey track record is more challenging because different pollsters surveying different audiences can often achieve higher error rates. According to Pew Research, confidence in public opinion polls has suffered due to errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. In these two general elections, many surveys underestimated the attractiveness of Republican Donald Trump.

When is Election Day 2024?

Election day is Tuesday, November 5th. Polls in New York are open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m

When does early voting take place in New York?

In-person early voting for the general election has begun Saturday, October 26th and ran through Sunday, November 3rd. The early voting deadline has passed.

When is the deadline to register to vote in New York?

The deadline for the general election was Saturday, October 26th. All applications – including personal applications – must be received by this date.

Note: It is now too late to register for the 2024 general election.

How to register to vote in New York

There are several ways to register to vote in New York:

  • Register online at elections.ny.gov
  • Register in person at your county board of elections, a state agency voter registration center, or the Department of Motor Vehicles
  • Register via email by requesting a form. You can call 1-800-367-8683 or request a form through the New York Voter Registration Form Request mailing list. Once the form is completed, print it, sign and date it, and mail it to your county board of elections by October 26th.

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