Who will win the match between BYU and Arizona? -Deseret News

Note: As EA Sports brings college football back to the video game world with “College Football 25,” the Deseret News is simulating every BYU game against an FBS opponent this season.

BYU's first game in October is an important one.

The Cougars, off to a 5-0 start and one win away from bowl eligibility, host Arizona on Saturday in a matchup that brought Fox's “Big Noon Kickoff” to Provo.

Can BYU remain undefeated and further strengthen its position as a Big 12 contender, or will Arizona march into LaVell Edwards Stadium and walk away with a road win?

The Deseret News ran a simulation of Saturday's game in the EA Sports College Football 25 video game – and the result was decided until the last second.

How the simulation was set up

There were a few ground rules: The simulation used 10-minute quarters and I let the computer simulate the game without user intervention.

The CPU ratings have also been adjusted slightly from standard to make pass defense more realistic. I adjusted the passing accuracy from 50 to 35 and then the pass defense ratings from 50 to 80. This helped create more realistic numbers.

There have also been injuries and depth chart changes.

BYU has a number of healthy running backs for this game, including LJ Martin and Sione I. Moa, and for the first time in several weeks, Martin was able to remain at the top of BYU's depth chart for the simulation at RB.

However, the Cougars are missing wide receiver Kody Epps and, more importantly, center Connor Pay, who suffered a broken foot in the win over Baylor two weeks ago. For the simulation, I used Sonny Makafisi as a replacement for Pay.

Arizona, meanwhile, lost two standout defensive backs – Treydan Stukes is out this year with a reported ACL injury, while Gunner Maldonado is out with a lower back injury. Both players were left off the Wildcats' depth chart in the secondary.

The uniforms that both teams will wear on Saturday have also been implemented into the simulation. BYU wears a royal blue jersey and a white helmet and pants with royal trim, while Arizona's appearance is all white – from helmet to jersey to pants.

How accurate was the simulation of BYU's last game?

The actual score: BYU 34, Baylor 28

College Football 25 Simulation Final Score: BYU 38, Baylor 17

My analysis: Yes, the simulation accurately predicted a BYU win. However, it was much closer than the simulation result ultimately showed.

The Cougars led 21-0 in the first quarter and 31-14 in the game proper at halftime, but the Bears rallied to make it a one-score game and had a chance to take the lead late. However, BYU's defense stood tall as the Cougars pulled away in the second half in the simulation.

How did the simulation go between BYU and Arizona?

Final result: BYU 20, Arizona 15

Key sequence: After trailing 20-9, the Wildcats almost took the lead back.

Arizona began its final possession at its own 16-yard line, and Tetairoa McMillan saved the drive by converting a 34-yard reception for a third-and-12.

That helped the Wildcats move downfield and get to the BYU 1 five plays later on a pass to Jeremiah Patterson.

This left Arizona in the best position to take its first lead, trailing 20-15 with just over two minutes remaining.

On first and goal, the Cougars dropped Quali Conley for a loss of 2 yards on the 3. Then on second down, Arizona's Noah Fifita tried to hit Patterson in the end zone, but the ball bounced off his hands and BYU's Jakob Robinson caught it tipped the ball off the ball to end the threat.

From there, the Cougars were able to run out the clock to avoid the late rally.

How the simulation went: The Cougars never trailed, although Arizona always found ways to persevere in their matchup in Provo.

BYU scored a touchdown on its first possession when Martin scored from 1 yard out midway through the first quarter. The Cougars converted three third downs on the drive, all passes and on the Arizona side of the field, including a 6-yarder to Darius Lassiter inside the 10 that set up the Martin TD run.

After an empty possession by both teams, Arizona got back into the game at the end of the first quarter with a 55-yard field goal from Tyler Loop.

The second quarter was all about field goals. Jake Retzlaff completed passes of 39 and 30 yards to Keanu Hill and Parker Kingston, respectively, to get BYU into the red zone on its first drive of the quarter, but the possession ended with a 34-yard field goal by Will Ferrin and one 10:3 lead.

The Cougars extended their lead to 10 on their next possession when Retzlaff was sacked from 1st down on third-and-goal, and with just under two minutes left before halftime, that led to a 27-yard field goal by Ferrin.

Arizona responded with a field goal drive of its own as Loop scored from 50 yards to make it 13-6 at halftime.

Both teams struggled offensively early in the second half before Arizona cut the deficit to 13-9 with another field goal drive, this time Loop scoring from 48 yards with three minutes left in the third quarter.

At this point, Chase Roberts delivered the Cougars' best offensive play of the day.

After Martin converted a third-and-2 with a 4-yard run early in the drive and Hill caught a 12-yard pass, Retzlaff found Roberts open up the middle for a 61-yard catch-and-run touchdown BYU increased the lead to 20-9 with a minute left in the third.

However, the Wildcats had an answer.

McMillan, the Wildcats' star receiver, extended Arizona's next drive with a 19-yard catch on third down, and Conley broke off a 16-yard run on the first play of the fourth quarter to put Arizona into BYU territory .

That set up another long touchdown when Fifita hit Montana Lemonious-Craig for a 46-yard touchdown pass less than a minute into the final period.

Trailing by five, the Wildcats went for 2, but BYU stopped a run in the backfield to make the score 20-15.

The missed two-point conversion proved to be crucial later on.

Over the next few minutes, BYU had two drives that ended in punts while Arizona had its own punt, then the Wildcats took the lead with just over four minutes left and had a chance to take the lead.

McMillan made another great third-down catch and gained 34 yards on a third-and-12, sparking the drive. Conley then converted a third-and-1 with a 12-yard run to the BYU 33, and Fifita found Patterson for a 29-yard pass to the BYU 1-yard line.

Then the Cougars' defensive heroics, highlighted by Robinson's interception, came to fruition in the final two minutes.

After Robinson's interception, BYU ran out of time to secure the victory.

Star player: Retzlaff threw for 270 yards and a touchdown and didn't turn the ball over. His favorite target was Roberts, who had four catches for 108 yards, while Hill added five receptions for 62 yards.

Martin ran for 64 yards in his first game back since Week 2.

Defensively, Harrison Taggart had 13 tackles, while Tyler Batty added four tackles, two tackles for loss and one of BYU's two sacks on the day.

Fifita completed 70% of his passes and threw for 273 yards, one touchdown and one interception for Arizona.

Lemonious-Craig had seven catches for 125 yards and a touchdown, while McMillan added seven receptions for 77 yards.

Conley ran for 114 yards with an average of 4.2 per carry.

Key stats: The Wildcats outscored the Cougars, 387 total yards to 335, and Arizona went 8 of 15 on third down, compared to 5 of 12 for BYU.

However, the Cougars finished their drives better – Arizona never reached the red zone until the end of the game and BYU forced a turnover on the Wildcats' only trip inside the 20.

The Cougars, in turn, scored on all three missions in the red zone, although only one of them was a touchdown, while two other missions ended in short field goals.

How realistic was the simulation?

My analysis: The BYU-Arizona game has the potential to be a thriller, and the simulation definitely provided an idea of ​​how that could play out.

Saturday's game could be very similar to the simulation.