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Who will win the presidential race? Follow the latest polls

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Who will win the presidential race? Follow the latest polls

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This year's presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is heated, and ongoing polls reflect the differences over who should be the nation's next commander in chief. With just two weeks until the 2024 general election, here's what the polls, odds and a historian have said over the past eight weeks and how they continue to change as we head toward Election Day on Tuesday, March 5. November, heading.

Who is ahead in the polls and is favored by the odds?

  • ABC News Project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls at 48.2%, ahead of Trump at 46.4% – by 1.8%, a narrower lead again this week. This compares to 48.5% over Trump 46.1% last week, compared to 48.5% over Trump 45.9% two weeks ago, compared to Harris 48.5% over Trump 45.8% three weeks ago compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.6% four weeks ago. compared to Harris 48.3% over Trump 45.3% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump 44.4% six weeks ago, compared to Harris 47.1% over Trump at 43.9 % seven weeks ago or compared to Harris 47.0% over Trump with 43.7% % eight weeks ago.
  • 270towin shows Harris leading the national polls with a 1.8% lead over Trump, compared to Harris' 2.5% lead over Trump last week, compared to Harris' 2.8% lead over Trump two weeks ago, compared to Harris' 3.7 % lead over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris over Trump three weeks ago 3% four weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.5% over Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris 0.9% over Trump six weeks ago, compared to Harris 2.7% over Trump seven weeks ago or compared to Harris 1.9% over Trump eight weeks ago.
  • Realclearpolling shows that the betting odds favor Harris with a spread of +0.9 over Trump, compared to +1.4 against Trump over last week's odds, compared to +2 two weeks ago, which was a tie, compared to Harris , which was favored by a spread of +1.8 over Trump three weeks ago, compared to Harris favorability of +2.3 over Trump four weeks ago, compared to Harris +2 over Trump five weeks ago, compared to Harris +1 .1 versus Trump six weeks ago, compared to Harris +1.8 versus Trump seven weeks ago, and compared to Harris +1.7 versus Trump eight weeks ago.
  • Polymarket, a crypto trading platform, puts the betting audience's odds in favor of Trump 61.4% over Harris 38.6%, which is a much larger margin of almost 23% over last week's odds of Trump 56.9% over Harris 42.6% compared to Trump equals 53.4% ​​compared to Harris 45.9% two weeks ago compared to Harris preferred to Trump at 2% three weeks ago compared to Harris preferred to Trump at 3% four weeks ago compared with Harris over Trump by 2% five weeks ago, compared to Harris 1% over Trump six weeks ago, or compared to Trump 4% over Harris seven weeks ago, or compared to Harris 1% over Trump eight weeks ago lay.

Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers apply as of Monday, October 21, 2024.

Historian Allan Lichtman reveals the 2024 presidential election

Presidential historian Allan Lichtman, 77, is a distinguished history professor at American University and has predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election against former President Donald Trump. He says he uses 13 “keys” to make his selection, ranging from economic indicators to candidates’ charisma.

Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every election in the last half century, except for the 2000 election, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

How accurate were polls or ratings in past presidential elections?

According to Conversation, a nonprofit news organization, the betting favorite has lost just twice since 1866.

Survey track record is more challenging because different pollsters surveying different audiences can often achieve higher error rates. According to Pew Research, confidence in public opinion polls has suffered due to errors in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. In these two general elections, many surveys underestimated the attractiveness of Republican Donald Trump.

When is Election Day 2024?

Election day is Tuesday, November 5th. Polls in New York are open from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m

When does early voting take place in New York?

In-person early voting for the general election begins Saturday, October 26th and runs through Sunday, November 3rd. For polling locations, contact your county elections office.

When is the deadline to register to vote in New York?

The deadline for the general election is Saturday, October 26th. All applications – including personal applications – must be received by this date.

How to register to vote in New York

There are several ways to register to vote in New York:

  • Register online at elections.ny.gov
  • Register in person at your county board of elections, a state agency voter registration center, or the Department of Motor Vehicles
  • Register via email by requesting a form. You can call 1-800-367-8683 or request a form through the New York Voter Registration Form Request mailing list. Once the form is completed, print it, sign and date it, and mail it to your county board of elections by October 26th.

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