Win-loss records may not tell the whole story for Florida State-Duke

The records are the exact opposite. The Florida State Seminoles are 1-5 heading into Friday night's road game in Durham, North Carolina, while the host Duke Blue Devils are 5-1.

But that doesn't mean the game should be a mismatch.

Of course it could be, but when you dig a little deeper into the numbers it becomes clear Mike Norvells squad and Manny Diaz The group could be pretty evenly matched football teams regardless of what the WL column says.

First, the combined record of the Seminoles' first six opponents this season is 27-10.

Duke's combined balance sheet? 17-21.

The Blue Devils won against Elon, Northwestern, Middle Tennessee State, UConn and North Carolina. The only loss came in the last game, a 24-14 loss at Georgia Tech.

And aside from a blowout win over a 1-5 MTSU team, Duke's three other FBS wins were by a combined 12 points.

Victories are victories. And Duke currently has four more than Florida State. But despite the record, the Seminoles will not face an unbeatable opponent on Friday night at Wallace Wade Stadium.

However, they face a team that plays well defensively. Duke hasn't allowed a team to score more than 24 points in a game all year.

The Blue Devils rank second in the ACC with 309.3 yards per game and 25th in the country in scoring defense. They are also No. 1 in the ACC in third-down percentage defense and No. 2 in the ACC (and 23rd in the country) in scoring defense, allowing 17.5 points per game.

Meanwhile, the Seminoles offense struggled to score against anyone. And it has the worst rushing offense in the country, allowing just 58 yards per game.

So points could be tight on Friday evening. Especially because Duke’s offense hasn’t exactly been an offensive clinic so far in 2024 either.

The Blue Devils rank 84th in offense so far this season. And if you subtract the 45 points they scored against Middle Tennessee State, one of the worst units in the country, Duke's offense is averaging just 22.6 points per game. And remember, some of those contests came against the likes of Elon and North Carolina.

Not exactly the best line of defense for murder.

The Blue Devils also rank 112th nationally in rushing offense, but it should be noted that they still average more than 60 yards per game than the Seminoles in that department. And star running back Thomas is on track for a 1,000-yard season. He's already racked up 528 yards on 113 carries.

And while sophomore quarterback Malik Murphy is completing just 60 percent of his passes, he is averaging 239 yards per game and has thrown 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. However, he hasn't proven to be a running threat at all. He has minus-54 yards on the ground and his longest run is just two yards.

No, none of these offenses were outstanding in the first half of the season.

But Duke won five games. Florida State has lost five.

On Friday night, we'll see if the underdog Seminoles can hand the Blue Devils their second loss of 2024.

If not, it would be Duke's first win against an FSU football team in school history.

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