Would Harris' election victory bring stability to US-EU trade and security relations?

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A victory for Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election would be widely welcomed in Europe as it would likely signal transatlantic continuity on issues from support for Ukraine to trade, analysts say.

As millions of Americans vote on Tuesday between Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump, who are tied in recent polls, European politicians will consider how the election will affect trade relations and the continent's security, as well as Kiev's resistance to Russia could impact full invasion.

“Overall, we can assume that at the European level, at the multilateral level, at the global foreign policy level, it will be a continuation of what Joe Biden has done so far,” said Serge Jaumin, professor at the Université Libre de Brussels (UBL ).

One of the most pressing issues in US-EU relations under the new president will be aid to Ukraine. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Washington has provided tens of billions of dollars in military and financial aid to Ukraine – more than any other ally.

Harris has vowed to follow in President Joe Biden's footsteps and continue his administration's policies of support for Ukraine, in contrast to Trump, who has criticized the level of U.S. aid to Kiev. The EU and its member states have provided at least 57 billion euros in financial support to Ukraine so far, and analysts say the bloc is hoping for a Harris win to maintain the status quo on U.S. funding going forward.

Bart Szewczyk, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund, said the “common challenge” for the U.S. and Europe is to help Ukraine win by “ensuring the continuity of arms supplies and financial support to Ukraine.”

“This is priority number one, two and three,” he told Euronews in an interview.

But even if Harris as president would be good news for Europe in this regard, she could still call on the bloc to contribute a larger share of aid to Kiev, as it may find it difficult to secure significant U.S. support for Ukraine. experts warn.

The trade barrier

On trade issues, Harris as president would be an easier proposal for Europe than Trump, who has vowed to impose 10% tariffs on imports from all countries and 60% tariffs on imports from China.

This would have a huge impact on trade between the EU and the USA. Trump warned last month that if he won the election, the EU would pay “a heavy price” for not buying enough American goods.

Harris would mainly take a business-as-usual approach, although she could pressure the EU to take an increasingly tough stance on China – whether through tighter restrictions on trade in advanced technologies or higher tariffs on Chinese imports, said the analysts interviewed.

There are some difficulties that need to be resolved between the EU and the US, such as tariffs on European steel and aluminum. The U.S. lifted tariffs imposed by Trump in 2018 on imports of these metals from the EU, and negotiations are expected to continue after the election to find a permanent solution, Szewczyk said.

Under a Harris administration, “trade policy and building constructive trade relationships with allies and partners will continue,” he added.

As Europe hopes for continuity and consistency in its relations with the next U.S. administration, the bloc may need to prepare for change in a country that is increasingly inward-looking regardless of its political leadership, analysts warned.

“Today in the United States there is a trend toward increasing isolation and increasing attention to defending the interests of Americans, regardless of the consequences,” UBL’s Jaumin said.

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“And there is also a desire … to gradually withdraw from some international issues in order to focus primarily on the United States.”