WTC final qualification scenario explained: Why India needs a favor from Bangladesh against South Africa to reach World Test Championship final

India will keep an eye on the Bangladesh-South Africa series | Courtesy of Bangladesh Cricket Board/AP

Bangladesh will host South Africa in the first Test of a two-match Test series at the Shere Bangla National Stadium in Dhaka from Monday (October 21). World Test Championship (WTC) final, especially after India's shock defeat to New Zealand in the Bengaluru Test.

While South Africa are currently sixth in the table with 38.89% points, they still have six games left which, on paper, are among the easiest games for any team. After the two-match away series against Bangladesh, the Temba Bavuma-led side will host Sri Lanka and Pakistan for two matches each.

The Proteas are expected to win all six games, meaning they will finish with 69.44%. If that happens, they will be guaranteed a place in the final as current top two performers India (68.08) and Australia (62.50) will be out and they will have to play five Test matches against each other starting next month.

World Test Championship 2023-25 ​​Table (After 1st Test between India and New Zealand)

Why does India need Bangladesh's favor to reach the final?

While India's position in the table seems comfortable, their fixture list makes it difficult for them as they have to face defending champions Australia in five away Tests. Despite their impressive recent record down under, it's no secret that winning on Australian soil is probably the toughest task in cricket.

Since every game in the WTC is extremely important, India needs to win at least five more games to ensure they win at least five games and draw to ensure they finish ahead of South Africa if they don't lose a point. However, five wins will be enough to secure a place against Australia even if the Pat Cummins-led side win both Tests against Sri Lanka in March.

While the situation remains under India's control and it is extremely likely that they will win the next two Tests against New Zealand, in this scenario they will need to win at least three Test matches in Australia, something they have never achieved in history.

Therefore, India will be hoping for a favor from one of the South African opponents. Should the Proteas lose even one of their remaining games, four wins and three losses would be enough for India to qualify. If South Africa loses two games, India will qualify with just two wins, meaning a 0-5 defeat could be enough even if India wins both games against New Zealand, unless Sri Lanka wins at least two or the remaining four games .

While history and convention logic suggest that South Africa is unlikely to lose points against Sri Lanka or Pakistan on home soil, there is reason to believe that the country could struggle in Bangladesh, particularly given its strong slow spin attack places in the Asian country.

With Sri Lanka also in the race, India will also be hoping that South Africa will lose points to Bangladesh and beat Sri Lanka.

It is worth noting that all of the above assumptions assume that no team will receive an excessive penalty, which is an outcome that cannot be predicted.