Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 4: Predictions, tips and best bets

After the first two games of the series went in the Yankees' favor, the Guardians bounced back Thursday night to bring the ALCS to 2-1. Cleveland can tie the series at home on Friday night.

It won't be easy. New York made Game 3 a daunting task, as extra innings and late-game home runs were the difference in pushing the Guardians over the top in front of their home crowd.

First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. EST at Progressive Field. Luis Gil (15-7/3.50 ERA) of the Yankees and Gavin Williams (3-10/4.86 ERA) of Cleveland are the expected starters.

Predictions and best bets for Yankees vs. Guardians

• Team to score first and win – Yankees: +130 to Fanatics
• Yankes scored over 3.5 runs: -140 on BetMGM
• First Earned Run Allowed – Gavin Williams: -125 on DraftKings

The offseason is a different animal. However, in Williams' only regular season start against the Yankees, he allowed three runs and eight baserunners in four-plus innings.

Add to that the fact that New York has finished in first place in six of its seven games during this playoff run, and I think getting positive odds ahead of Game 4 is worth the investment.

While the Guardians aren't afraid to rely on their bullpen, the constant use of relievers tends to dry the well in the playoffs. This late in the year, this approach could have some impact.

After a tough loss, the Yankees offense will be tested to see how it can bounce back from the loss. Given the depth of their lineup and their offensive success at this point in the series, I think it's worth believing they will surpass the 3.5 run total.

Moneyline Odds Analysis Yankees vs. Guardians

Why New York could win as favorites

Best odds: -120 Moneyline with FanDuel Sportsbook

Game 4 could prove to be the most important game of the series after an epic showdown in Game 3. If the Yankees lose two games in a row, the momentum shifts completely in the Guardians' favor.

In postseason baseball, it can be easy to believe in the storylines. It would be impressive to see the Guardians bounce back from a 2-0 deficit, but New York is primed to maintain its pace of play with contributing pieces throughout the batting order.

Although the bullpen is strong for Cleveland, starting pitching has become a question for the team. The decision to name Williams as the Game 4 starter was never a sure thing, as the team had some underwhelming options at that point in the postseason.

You can't necessarily expect a unit to get tired when Cleveland's bullpen has played efficiently all year. However, if the Yankees can strike early, it could result in the Guardians having to use more and more of their bullpen.

When fatigue sets in, this Yankees' lineup will reveal it.

Why Cleveland could win as an underdog

Best odds: +105 Moneyline at BetMGM Sportsbook

If there are any signs of a postseason collapse, the Yankees are starting to show them. I'm stuck in a crucial fourth game that could shift the momentum in the series back to Cleveland heading into the final three-game stretch.

While there are questions about the Guardians' starting pitching, Gil himself has red flags. The pitcher was passed over to start in the ALDS to Clay Schmidt, and the reaction to that type of move can go either way.

This is a difficult situation for a rookie in his first postseason appearance coming off 20 days of rest. The Guardians must fancy their chances of breaking him through.

With their backs against the wall, they were down 2-0 in the series and hit two home runs to not only recover from a 3-5 deficit, but also avoid a 3-0 deficit in the series.

The road to winning this series is a long one for the Guardians, but more often than not, the team that catches fire is the one that ends up winning it all. There was no better moment for a dugout than winning Game 3.

Doing that in Game 4 in front of their own fans could prove difficult for the Yankees to overcome.