Yankees vs. Guardians Game 5 Predictions: ALCS Picks, Odds, Bets

The Cleveland Guardians failed to tie the ALCS in two games each.

After rallying from a 6-2 deficit to tie the score in Game 4, Cleveland shortstop Brayan Rocchio failed to cleanly field a ground ball from Alex Verdugo in the top of the ninth, leading to a run by Jon Berti led.

Gleyber Torres then hit a single to bring in Anthony Volpe and give the Yankees an 8-6 lead.

Tommy Kahnle entered the game in the bottom of the ninth and managed to get two runners on and one out of harm's way to end the game.

With the Yankees just one win away from the World Series, they will turn to Carlos Rodón on the mound to start Game 5, while the Guardians will counter with Tanner Bibee.

However, Cleveland's decision to use Bibee is not without risk, as he will be on short rest for the first time in his major league career.

Yankees outlook

Rodón showed his skills in the series opener, limiting the Guardians to just one run on three hits in six innings.

It was an excellent rebounding performance after he allowed four runs in 3 ⅔ innings against the Royals in the divisional round.

The Yankees will undoubtedly be hoping for a lot more from the 10-year veteran after he earned his first postseason win.

Nonetheless, this is a matchup in which Rodón has been particularly successful since his time in the AL Central as a member of the White Sox.

In 21 games, the southpaw posted a 2.81 ERA while limiting the Guardians to a .214 batting average and .275 weighted on base average (wOBA).

And if we just focus on the Guardians' current roster, they are hitting .193 with a .256 wOBA in 92 plate appearances against Rodón.

He did an excellent job of using his fastball to get ahead of Cleveland's hitters before using his slider as a pitch.

Rodón's slider will continue to be a key weapon for him against the Guardians, and according to FanGraphs, it's a pitch they've performed worst against all season (-19.8 runs below average).

Analysis of the Guardians

The Yankees gave Bibee a rude reception in Game 2, scoring three runs on five hits in 1 ⅓ innings of work.

While Bibee performed well in the division series against the Tigers, facing this Yankees lineup is a huge step up in class.

The Guardians are now 0-2 in Bibee's two career starts against the Pinstripers.

In 30 plate appearances, this current Yankees roster is batting .407 against Bibee with a .467 wOBA and a launch angle of 18.7 degrees.

Like Rodón, Bibee also relies heavily on his slider, as it has the second-highest usage rate in his arsenal at 27.8%. The slider also gives Bibee his highest strikeout rate at 34.4%.

He averages 13.8 runs saved when he pitches, but the problem is that the Yankees have the fourth-highest run production (+9.0 runs above average) in the league when they play the slider.

Although Bibee only threw 39 pitches in Game 2 and didn't throw deeper than the second inning, he was in high-leverage moments from the start.

With Torres, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge leading the Yankees line, Bibee could be in for another tough game.

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Choice between Yankees and Guardians

No one would deny that Bibee had an exceptional year and was by far the Guardian's best pitcher.

In his first two seasons with Cleveland, he is 22-12 with a 3.25 ERA.

The reality is that the Guardians are almost out of options at this point, so they send Bibee back on a short break.

Unfortunately, he faces a Yankees lineup that is simply too high quality.

Additionally, Rodón is a handful against Cleveland, and his teams are on a 5-0 run when he starts against the Guardians.

Since it's not often that you can win the Yankees as short favorites at -120 or better, this opportunity is too good to pass up at the current price.

Best Bet: Yankees ML (-118, FanDuel)

Why should you trust New York Post Betting?

For the New York Post, Michael Arinze hinders most major sports. He has won two 15-leg teasers and a 12-leg parlay in his betting career, which spanned eight games of the Little League World Series. Most recently, he precisely selected the finalists for the 2024 European Championship and the Copa América.