Yankees vs. Royals 2024 ALDS preview: Predictions, pitching matchups and more

The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals meet in the American League Division Series after KC traveled to Baltimore and defeated the Orioles in the Wild Card Round. The best-of-five series begins on Saturday in New York. The winner will face either the Cleveland Guardians or the Detroit Tigers in the ALCS.

Playtimes

Game 1: Royals at Yankees, Saturday, October 5, 6:38 p.m. ET, TBS/Max

Game 2: Royals at Yankees, Monday, October 7, 7:38 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV/Max

Game 3: Yankees at Royals, Wednesday, October 9, time to be announced, TBS/truTV/Max

Game 4: Yankees at Royals, Thursday, October 10, time to be announced, TBS/truTV/Max (if required)

Game 5: Royals at Yankees, Saturday, October 12, time TBD, TBS/max (if required)

Pitching matches

The time off should help here, at least in theory. Because if you were to compare the Yankees' rotation individually to the Royals' rotation, it would be fair to call them well-matched. But the schedule – among other things – hides the fact that this matchup could be in the Yankees' favor, despite the season-long ERA numbers.

For one thing, ERA is not predictive. That's one of the worst statistics to use when looking forward to the next game instead of describing what happened, especially when you're dealing with parks – Yankee Stadium and Kauffman Stadium – that so different in their home friendliness. The strikeout-minus-walk rate is better. There, the Yankees' and Royals' rotations are separated by decimal points.

Additionally, the back end of these rotations doesn't matter. The Yankees pitched nearly 200 innings with a 4.68 ERA from starters who may not be on the roster for this series. The Royals' year-round rotation numbers also include some guys who might not pitch in the ALDS, they pitched fewer innings (168) and their ERA was better (4.27), skewing the full-strength comparison.

Ultimately, the Yankees can design their rotation however they want. Gerrit Cole in Game 1. Carlos Rodón in Game 2. The Royals will likely want to avoid using the resurgent Cole Ragans — who has already surpassed his career high by more than 50 innings and ended his last start with cramps — on short rest. Seth Lugo pitched in Game 2 of the wild-card win over the Baltimore Orioles and is also over 50 innings above his previous maximum. Therefore, the Royals will likely start this series with a combination of Brady Singer and Michael Wacha, who have yet to pitch this postseason, but the former has never pitched that many innings in a season and the latter only once before, nine years ago.

Something similar happens in the bullpen, where the narrative may be that the Yankees' bullpen is imploding and terrible and the Royals' bullpen is comparable to their “Balls” from their championship runs. That's simply not supported by the underlying stats, which the Yankees have been far superior to, or by the projections of the top four guys in each pen, where the Yankees have a park-neutral projected ERA of 3.20 (second best among postseason teams) . and the Royals have a grade of 4.1 (worst in the playoffs). Lucas Erceg is a great story, but the Royals will need more than just him.

You could be told that the Royals have the edge when it comes to pitching in this series. They don't read The athlete. – Eno Sarris

Why the Yankees will win

The Yankees will have arguably the two best players on the field in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig of this generation. (That's no disrespect to Bobby Witt Jr., who finishes second to Judge in the AL MVP race and can win any game with his athleticism.) It's going to be a nightmare for Judge and Soto, who bat back-to-back against the Royals , and they're bolstered by menacing bats: Gleyber Torres, who has been excellent since taking the top spot (.824 OPS in 40 games); Austin Wells, a Rookie of the Year candidate; and Giancarlo Stanton, who loves the postseason (11 home runs in 27 playoff games).

Not to mention, they'll be playing last year's AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole in Game 1. Cole had a rocky regular season, but finished with a 2.25 ERA in his last ten starts. Rodón, their Game 2 starter, has allowed just two runs in two starts (13 innings) against Kansas City this season. And their pitching options for Game 3 – Luis Gil (15-7, 3.50 ERA) and Clarke Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA) – are also dangerous. Plus, the Yankees bullpen is much better since making Luke Weaver the de facto closer.

Will they miss Anthony Rizzo's sturdy glove at first base? Secure. Are they in left field between Jasson Domínguez and Alex Verdugo? No. But the Yankees are as healthy as they have been all year, they won the season series against the Royals 5-2, and they will have the Bronx and home field advantage on their side. Don't underestimate the power of the Yankee Stadium crowd to put pressure on their opponents. — Brendan Kuty

Why the Royals will win

Of all the teams, the Royals just know how to do this postseason thing.

Since 1985, the Royals are 9-1 in their last 10 postseason series and 32-15 overall in playoff games. That includes the 1985 and 2015 World Series championships, but not the last time they faced the Yankees in October: the 1980 ALCS. The Royals won that five-game series in three games.

Of course, the old playoff history of the Royals and Yankees from the late 1970s and early 80s will have no bearing on this series. But Kansas City can win for two reasons: the random nature of a five-game series and the fact that it can send Ragans and Lugo to the mound in three of the possible five games.

Ragans, who threw six scoreless innings against the Orioles on Tuesday, would be ready to start Game 2 against Rodón at Yankee Stadium, which would then make him available for a possible Game 5 back in New York.

The Royals' offense ranked 13th in the majors in runs scored, but Witt, the AL's batting champion, can change a game with his bat and speed.

Are the Yankees the better team on paper? Yes. But with this rotation and Witt in a five-game series? Baseball can definitely happen. — Rustin Dodd

Check back later for series predictions from The Athletics MLB staff.

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Yankees Player Spotlight: Aaron Judge, CF

He is the best baseball player. Period. He might even be a better hitter overall this year than he was when he set an AL single-season record with 62 homers in 2022. Judge led the MLB rankings in 12 statistical categories, including home runs (58), RBIs (144), walks (133), OPS (1,159) and fWAR (11.2). He has been a solid midfield defender this season and is the team's official captain in his second season. And as Judge builds his case for the Hall of Fame, he will be motivated to check another box: postseason performance. In 44 playoff games, he hit just .211 with an OPS of .772. His main concern has to be making it big in October and ultimately winning a World Series ring. But here's the question: Will the Royals let Judge beat them? — Kuty

Royals Player Spotlight: Bobby Witt Jr., SS

Witt will finish second to Judge in the AL MVP voting. But he would certainly prefer a trip to the ALCS.

The 24-year-old Witt delivered the game-winning RBI in Game 1 against the Orioles. He's been hitting the moment all season. In his third major league season, he became the first player in history with 200 hits, 100 runs, 40 doubles, 30 homers, 10 triples and 30 stolen bases in the same year.

There are no brighter lights than Yankee Stadium in October, and as Royals general manager JJ Picollo likes to say:

Witt doesn't crave the spotlight. But he certainly seems to accept it. – Dodd

Story from the tape

A must for the Yankees

Why Aaron Judge called a players-only meeting that helped jump-start the Yankees' run in September

Inside Aaron Judge's swing change that helped him have another monster season

Five takeaways from the Yankees' regular season and what's next in the postseason

Insights into the Yankees' scouting and development of Luis Gil

Matt Blake explains why Yankees fans should believe in the team's bullpen ahead of the postseason

A must for royals

Fear the royals, the unlikely scholars of October

Looking back at the trade that sent Cole Ragans to KC

King of the eight-pitch club: Seth Lugo rides a huge arsenal to All-Star success

How Bobby Witt Jr. became “Bobby Baseball”: Nine stories on the way to superstardom

Around Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals are building a new culture and entering the modern era of MLB

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(Top image: Aaron Judge: Luke Hales / Getty Images; Bobby Witt Jr.: Jess Rapfogel / Getty Images)